AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Pro League Sep 28, 2024

Newcastle United

Home
VS
15:00

Manchester City

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Newcastle United Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Manchester City Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 43%
xG: 1.86 - 1.28
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 1.3
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Newcastle United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Manchester City Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
28%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
10%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 1-0 (8%) 2-0 (7%) 1-2 (7%) 2-2 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
Newcastle United Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 21 Newcastle… vs Fulham 3-1
Sep 21 Newcastle… vs Fulham 3-1
Sep 15 Newcastle… vs Wolves 1-2
Sep 15 Newcastle… vs Wolves 1-2
Sep 01 Newcastle… vs Tottenham 2-1
Sep 01 Newcastle… vs Tottenham 2-1
Aug 25 Newcastle… vs Bournemou… 1-1
Aug 25 Newcastle… vs Bournemou… 1-1
Aug 17 Newcastle… vs Southampt… 1-0
May 22 Newcastle… vs Tottenham 1-1
Manchester City Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 22 Mancheste… vs Arsenal 2-2
Sep 21 Mancheste… vs Tranmere … 3-0
Sep 17 Mancheste… vs Milton Ke… 2-1
Sep 14 Mancheste… vs Morecambe 3-3
Sep 14 Mancheste… vs Brentford 2-1
Sep 14 Mancheste… vs Brentford 2-1
Sep 07 Mancheste… vs Burnley 1-1
Aug 31 Mancheste… vs Accringto… 1-1
Aug 31 Mancheste… vs West Brom 1-3
Aug 31 Mancheste… vs West Brom 1-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Newcastle United in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Manchester City in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 16, 2024 Manchester City 2 - 0 Newcastle United FA Cup
Jan 13, 2024 Newcastle United 2 - 3 Manchester City Pro League
Jan 13, 2024 Newcastle United 2 - 3 Manchester City Premier League
Sep 27, 2023 Newcastle United 1 - 0 Manchester City League Cup
Aug 19, 2023 Manchester City 1 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Mar 04, 2023 Manchester City 2 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Aug 21, 2022 Newcastle United 3 - 3 Manchester City Premier League
May 08, 2022 Manchester City 5 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Dec 19, 2021 Newcastle United 0 - 4 Manchester City Premier League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Newcastle United to win (40% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 2-1 40% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Newcastle United Power 35
Manchester City Power 46
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.