AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Pro League Jan 13, 2024

Newcastle United

Home
VS
15:00

Manchester City

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Newcastle United Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Manchester City Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 93%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 26%
xG: 3.31 - 1.37
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.3 vs 1.4
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Newcastle United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
12%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
18%
Manchester City Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
25%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (8%) 2-1 (7%) 3-0 (6%) 3-2 (5%) 2-0 (5%) 2-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 72%
Under 2.5 Goals 28%
Newcastle United Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 06 Newcastle… vs Sunderland 0-3
Jan 01 Newcastle… vs Liverpool 4-2
Jan 01 Newcastle… vs Liverpool 4-2
Dec 26 Newcastle… vs Nottingha… 1-3
Dec 23 Newcastle… vs Bolton 1-0
Dec 19 Newcastle… vs Chelsea 1-1
Dec 16 Newcastle… vs Fulham 3-0
Dec 16 Newcastle… vs Fulham 3-0
Dec 13 Newcastle… vs AC Milan 1-2
Dec 10 Newcastle… vs Tottenham 4-1
Manchester City Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 06 Mancheste… vs Swindon 2-2
Jan 01 Mancheste… vs Birmingham 0-1
Jan 01 Mancheste… vs Birmingham 0-1
Dec 30 Mancheste… vs Sheffield… 2-0
Dec 29 Mancheste… vs AFC Wimbl… 5-3
Dec 27 Mancheste… vs Everton 1-3
Dec 26 Mancheste… vs Milton Ke… 1-0
Dec 26 Mancheste… vs Milton Ke… 1-0
Dec 22 Mancheste… vs Watford 2-1
Dec 22 Mancheste… vs Watford 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Newcastle United struggling (4L in last 5) Home
  • Manchester City struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 27, 2023 Newcastle United 1 - 0 Manchester City League Cup
Aug 19, 2023 Manchester City 1 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Mar 04, 2023 Manchester City 2 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Aug 21, 2022 Newcastle United 3 - 3 Manchester City Premier League
May 08, 2022 Manchester City 5 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Dec 19, 2021 Newcastle United 0 - 4 Manchester City Premier League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Newcastle United to win (40% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 2-1 40% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Newcastle United Power 35
Manchester City Power 46
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.