AI Match Insights
Pro League Apr 06, 2024
Grimsby
HomeVS
15:00
Newport County AFC
AwayAI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Grimsby Win
Draw
Newport County AFC Win
Home Win
(51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
80%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
Combined: 48%
Draw Risk: 51%
xG: 1.38 - 0.37
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.4
High draw risk (50%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Grimsby Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Newport County AFC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (24%)
0-0 (17%)
2-0 (17%)
1-1 (9%)
3-0 (8%)
0-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
23%
Over 2.5 Goals
25%
Under 2.5 Goals
75%
Grimsby Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 01 | Grimsby vs Brentford | 1-1 |
| Mar 29 | Grimsby vs Barrow | 3-1 |
| Mar 23 | Grimsby vs Wrexham | 1-3 |
| Mar 16 | Grimsby vs Birmingham | 1-1 |
| Mar 12 | Grimsby vs Milton Ke… | 1-0 |
| Mar 12 | Grimsby vs Milton Ke… | 1-0 |
| Mar 09 | Grimsby vs Southampt… | 1-1 |
| Mar 05 | Grimsby vs AFC Wimbl… | 0-0 |
| Mar 02 | Grimsby vs Forest Gr… | 1-0 |
| Feb 24 | Grimsby vs Morecambe | 1-1 |
Newport County AFC Form 4.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 01 | Newport C… vs Crawley T… | 0-4 |
| Apr 01 | Newport C… vs Milton Ke… | 3-3 |
| Apr 01 | Newport C… vs Crawley T… | 0-4 |
| Apr 01 | Newport C… vs Milton Ke… | 3-3 |
| Mar 29 | Newport C… vs Swindon | 2-1 |
| Mar 29 | Newport C… vs Mancheste… | 2-1 |
| Mar 29 | Newport C… vs Mancheste… | 2-1 |
| Mar 29 | Newport C… vs Swindon | 2-1 |
| Mar 23 | Newport C… vs Barrow | 1-0 |
| Mar 23 | Newport C… vs Barrow | 1-0 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Newport County AFC struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | Grimsby | 5 - 5 | Newport County AFC | Pro League |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Grimsby | 5 - 5 | Newport County AFC | League Two |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Newport County AFC | 1 - 1 | Grimsby | League Two |
| Dec 16, 2023 | Newport County AFC | 1 - 1 | Grimsby | Pro League |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Newport County AFC | 3 - 2 | Grimsby | League Two |
| Mar 07, 2023 | Grimsby | 1 - 1 | Newport County AFC | League Two |
| Sep 03, 2022 | Newport County AFC | 0 - 2 | Grimsby | League Two |
| May 23, 2022 | Newport County AFC | 1 - 2 | Grimsby | National League |
| Feb 05, 2022 | Newport County AFC | 1 - 2 | Grimsby | National League |
| Oct 30, 2021 | Grimsby | 0 - 1 | Newport County AFC | National League |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Grimsby to win (40% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0
40% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
Grimsby Power
38
Newport County AFC Power
26
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.