AI Match Insights

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Serie A Apr 27, 2025

Botafogo

Home
VS
00:00

Fluminense

Away
AI Predictions 41.2% Confidence
Botafogo Win
31.0%
Draw
27.8%
Fluminense Win
41.2%
Away Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 85%
Market 50%
Combined: 57% Draw Risk: 40%
xG: 3.04 - 0.44
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.0 vs 0.4
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Botafogo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
5%
1 goals:
15%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
17%
Fluminense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
64%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (14%) 2-0 (14%) 1-0 (9%) 3-1 (6%) 2-1 (6%) 1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 34%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
Botafogo Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 20 Botafogo vs Vila Nova 2-0
Apr 20 Botafogo vs Atletico-… 1-0
Apr 19 Botafogo vs Nautico R… 0-0
Apr 17 Botafogo vs Remo 2-2
Apr 16 Botafogo vs São Paulo… 2-2
Apr 13 Botafogo vs Athletico… 1-1
Apr 12 Botafogo vs Confiança 3-0
Apr 12 Botafogo vs RB Bragan… 1-0
Apr 06 Botafogo vs Juventude 2-0
Apr 05 Botafogo vs América M… 1-0
Fluminense Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 20 Fluminense vs Vitoria 1-1
Apr 16 Fluminense vs Corinthia… 0-2
Apr 13 Fluminense vs Santos 1-0
Apr 06 Fluminense vs RB Bragan… 2-1
Mar 29 Fluminense vs Fortaleza 2-0
Mar 29 Fluminense vs PiauĂ­ 2-0
Mar 22 Fluminense vs PiauĂ­ 2-2
Mar 16 Fluminense vs Flamengo 0-0
Mar 16 Fluminense vs Santos 3-2
Mar 13 Fluminense vs Flamengo 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Fluminense in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 09, 2025 Botafogo 4 - 1 Fluminense Paraibano
Jan 30, 2025 Botafogo 2 - 1 Fluminense Carioca - 1
Sep 21, 2024 Fluminense 0 - 1 Botafogo Serie A
Jun 11, 2024 Botafogo 1 - 0 Fluminense Serie A
Mar 03, 2024 Fluminense 2 - 4 Botafogo Carioca - 1
Jan 31, 2024 Fluminense 0 - 0 Botafogo Paraibano
Oct 08, 2023 Fluminense 0 - 2 Botafogo Serie A
May 20, 2023 Botafogo 1 - 0 Fluminense Serie A
Apr 29, 2023 Botafogo 2 - 0 Fluminense Friendlies Clu…
Jan 29, 2023 Fluminense 0 - 1 Botafogo Carioca - 1
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Botafogo Power 0
Fluminense Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Botafogo Position

+3

Position Gap

8

Fluminense Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.