AI Match Insights

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Eredivisie Oct 18, 2025

Ajax

Home
VS
19:00

AZ Alkmaar

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Ajax Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
AZ Alkmaar Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 89%
Standings 58%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 41%
xG: 2.25 - 0.56
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.2 vs 0.6
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
11%
1 goals:
24%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
11%
AZ Alkmaar Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
57%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (15%) 1-0 (14%) 3-0 (11%) 2-1 (9%) 1-1 (8%) 3-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Under 2.5 Goals 49%
Ajax Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 04 Ajax vs Sparta Ro… 3-3
Sep 30 Ajax vs Marseille 4-0
Sep 27 Ajax vs NAC Breda 2-1
Sep 21 Ajax vs PSV Eindh… 2-2
Sep 17 Ajax vs Inter 0-2
Sep 13 Ajax vs PEC Zwolle 3-1
Aug 30 Ajax vs FC Volend… 1-1
Aug 24 Ajax vs Heracles 2-0
Aug 17 Ajax vs GO Ahead … 2-2
Aug 10 Ajax vs Telstar 2-0
AZ Alkmaar Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 05 AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar 2-1
Oct 02 AZ Alkmaar vs AEK Larna… 4-0
Sep 28 AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijme… 2-1
Sep 24 AZ Alkmaar vs PEC Zwolle 2-2
Sep 21 AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord 3-3
Sep 14 AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles 1-2
Aug 31 AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda 0-1
Aug 28 AZ Alkmaar vs CSKA Sofia 4-1
Aug 21 AZ Alkmaar vs CSKA Sofia 0-2
Aug 17 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Volend… 2-2
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 16, 2025 Ajax 2 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
Jan 14, 2025 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax KNVB Beker
Dec 08, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Eredivisie
Dec 08, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Pro League
Feb 25, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax Eredivisie
Feb 25, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax Pro League
Oct 08, 2023 Ajax 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
May 06, 2023 Ajax 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
Sep 18, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Eredivisie
May 08, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 2 Ajax Eredivisie
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Ajax Power 0
AZ Alkmaar Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Ajax Position

+2

Position Gap

6

AZ Alkmaar Position
Home Win Rate: 64%
Away Win Rate: 46%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.