AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
National League Sep 27, 2025

Hartlepool

Home
VS
14:00

Tamworth

Away
AI Predictions 38.0% Confidence
Hartlepool Win
35.0%
Draw
27.0%
Tamworth Win
38.0%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 57%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 49%
xG: 2.28 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.3 vs 0.2
High draw risk (49%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Hartlepool Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
10%
1 goals:
23%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
12%
Tamworth Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (22%) 1-0 (19%) 3-0 (17%) 0-0 (8%) 2-1 (4%) 1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 16%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Under 2.5 Goals 58%
Hartlepool Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 23 Hartlepool vs Gateshead 0-1
Sep 20 Hartlepool vs Aldershot… 1-0
Sep 13 Hartlepool vs Crawley T… 0-0
Sep 06 Hartlepool vs Forest Gr… 1-0
Sep 03 Hartlepool vs Bolton 1-1
Aug 30 Hartlepool vs Boreham W… 0-0
Aug 25 Hartlepool vs Southend 1-1
Aug 23 Hartlepool vs Woking 3-0
Aug 19 Hartlepool vs Altrincham 0-2
Aug 16 Hartlepool vs Braintree 2-0
Tamworth Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 24 Tamworth vs Wealdstone 1-1
Sep 20 Tamworth vs Yeovil To… 1-0
Sep 16 Tamworth vs Everton U… 2-1
Sep 13 Tamworth vs Southampt… 2-3
Sep 09 Tamworth vs York 4-0
Sep 06 Tamworth vs Eastleigh 1-0
Sep 02 Tamworth vs Braintree 1-2
Aug 25 Tamworth vs Crawley T… 1-1
Aug 23 Tamworth vs Gateshead 2-1
Aug 19 Tamworth vs Truro City 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Tamworth in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 11, 2025 Hartlepool 2 - 2 Tamworth National League
Dec 10, 2024 Hartlepool 1 - 1 Tamworth FA Trophy
Aug 20, 2024 Tamworth 0 - 1 Hartlepool National League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (33% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 33% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Hartlepool Power 36
Tamworth Power 30
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Hartlepool Position

+4

Position Gap

13

Tamworth Position
Home Win Rate: 38%
Away Win Rate: 36%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.