AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga 3 Aug 10, 2025

Amarante

Home
VS
15:00

Varzim

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Amarante Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Varzim Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 53%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 39%
xG: 1.72 - 0.83
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.7 vs 0.8
High draw risk (39%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Amarante Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
18%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
15%
4 goals:
7%
Varzim Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
44%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (13%) 2-0 (12%) 1-1 (11%) 2-1 (10%) 0-0 (8%) 3-0 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 46%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Under 2.5 Goals 54%
Amarante Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 13 Amarante vs Fafe 1-1
Apr 06 Amarante vs Varzim 2-1
Feb 16 Amarante vs Fafe 1-3
Feb 08 Amarante vs Varzim 1-2
Jan 18 Amarante vs Fafe 0-0
Jan 12 Amarante vs SC Braga 1-1
Dec 15 Amarante vs Varzim 0-1
Dec 01 Amarante vs São João … 2-0
Nov 22 Amarante vs Sporting … 6-0
Nov 10 Amarante vs Trofense 1-0
Varzim Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
May 17 Varzim vs Fafe 5-3
Apr 06 Varzim vs Amarante 2-1
Mar 29 Varzim vs Fafe 1-0
Feb 08 Varzim vs Amarante 1-2
Jan 26 Varzim vs São João … 4-1
Jan 18 Varzim vs Trofense 2-1
Jan 12 Varzim vs Sanjoanen… 1-2
Dec 15 Varzim vs Amarante 0-1
Dec 07 Varzim vs SC Braga 1-0
Nov 24 Varzim vs O Elvas 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Varzim struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 06, 2025 Amarante 2 - 1 Varzim Liga 3
Feb 08, 2025 Varzim 1 - 2 Amarante Liga 3
Dec 15, 2024 Amarante 0 - 1 Varzim Liga 3
Aug 31, 2024 Varzim 1 - 3 Amarante Liga 3
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Amarante to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Amarante Power 0
Varzim Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Amarante Position

+1

Position Gap

3

Varzim Position
Home Win Rate: 44%
Away Win Rate: 39%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.