AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga Portugal 2 Aug 30, 2025

Penafiel FC

Home
VS
10:00

Chaves

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Penafiel FC Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Chaves Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 69%
Standings 32%
Market 50%
Combined: 42% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.07 - 0.45
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.1 vs 0.5
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Penafiel FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
34%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Chaves Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
64%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (23%) 0-0 (22%) 2-0 (13%) 1-1 (11%) 0-1 (10%) 2-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 24%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Under 2.5 Goals 80%
Penafiel FC Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 24 Penafiel … vs Leixões SC 3-2
Aug 17 Penafiel … vs Oliveiren… 0-0
Aug 09 Penafiel … vs Portimone… 2-1
May 15 Penafiel … vs Chaves 0-0
May 11 Penafiel … vs Benfica 1-1
May 05 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 0-1
Apr 27 Penafiel … vs Leixões SC 3-1
Apr 19 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 1-2
Apr 14 Penafiel … vs Mafra 4-2
Feb 21 Penafiel … vs Portimone… 3-0
Chaves Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 22 Chaves vs Felgueira… 1-1
Aug 16 Chaves vs Lusitânia… 2-2
Aug 10 Chaves vs Benfica B 1-1
May 15 Chaves vs Penafiel … 0-0
May 10 Chaves vs União de … 0-2
May 04 Chaves vs Tondela 2-1
Apr 29 Chaves vs Alverca 0-2
Apr 19 Chaves vs FC Porto 1-2
Apr 12 Chaves vs Portimone… 2-0
Mar 30 Chaves vs Pacos Fer… 2-0
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 15, 2025 Penafiel FC 0 - 0 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Jan 04, 2025 Chaves 0 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Jul 18, 2023 Penafiel FC 1 - 2 Chaves Friendlies Clu…
Mar 06, 2022 Penafiel FC 2 - 1 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Oct 10, 2021 Chaves 3 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Mar 29, 2021 Chaves 2 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Nov 09, 2020 Penafiel FC 1 - 0 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Penafiel FC Power 0
Chaves Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

18

Penafiel FC Position

-9

Position Gap

9

Chaves Position
Home Win Rate: 30%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.