AI Match Insights
League One Aug 16, 2025
Stevenage
HomeVS
14:00
Northampton Town FC
AwayAI Predictions 57.0% Confidence
Stevenage Win
Draw
Northampton Town FC Win
Home Win
(57% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
80%
Standings
80%
Market
50%
Combined: 53%
Draw Risk: 34%
xG: 1.86 - 0.89
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 0.9
Position gap: 15 places
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Stevenage Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Northampton Town FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (12%)
2-0 (11%)
1-1 (11%)
2-1 (10%)
3-0 (7%)
0-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
50%
Over 2.5 Goals
51%
Under 2.5 Goals
49%
Stevenage Form 12.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | Stevenage vs Charlton | 3-1 |
| Aug 09 | Stevenage vs Rotherham… | 1-0 |
| Aug 02 | Stevenage vs Blackpool | 2-3 |
| May 03 | Stevenage vs Bolton | 1-1 |
| Apr 27 | Stevenage vs Rotherham… | 1-1 |
| Apr 24 | Stevenage vs Birmingham | 0-1 |
| Apr 21 | Stevenage vs Bristol C… | 0-1 |
| Apr 21 | Stevenage vs Bristol R… | 0-1 |
| Apr 18 | Stevenage vs Blackpool | 1-3 |
| Apr 12 | Stevenage vs Wycombe | 1-0 |
Northampton Town FC Form 4.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | Northampt… vs Southampt… | 0-1 |
| Aug 09 | Northampt… vs Brentford | 0-0 |
| Aug 02 | Northampt… vs Lincoln | 3-0 |
| Aug 02 | Northampt… vs Wigan | 3-1 |
| May 03 | Northampt… vs Wigan | 1-1 |
| Apr 26 | Northampt… vs Crawley T… | 3-0 |
| Apr 21 | Northampt… vs Shrewsbury | 4-1 |
| Apr 18 | Northampt… vs Charlton | 2-1 |
| Apr 12 | Northampt… vs Reading FC | 0-0 |
| Apr 05 | Northampt… vs Peterboro… | 0-4 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Northampton Town FC struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01, 2025 | Northampton Town FC | 0 - 0 | Stevenage | League One |
| Dec 03, 2024 | Stevenage | 2 - 0 | Northampton Town FC | League One |
| Dec 03, 2024 | Stevenage | 2 - 0 | Northampton Town FC | Pro League |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Stevenage | 3 - 0 | Northampton Town FC | Pro League |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Stevenage | 3 - 0 | Northampton Town FC | League One |
| Aug 05, 2023 | Northampton Town FC | 0 - 1 | Stevenage | League One |
| Apr 01, 2023 | Northampton Town FC | 1 - 1 | Stevenage | League Two |
| Oct 22, 2022 | Stevenage | 2 - 3 | Northampton Town FC | League Two |
| Mar 15, 2022 | Stevenage | 1 - 2 | Northampton Town FC | League Two |
| Oct 19, 2021 | Northampton Town FC | 3 - 0 | Stevenage | League Two |
Final Verdict
MASTER: Stevenage to win (75% confidence)
MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0
75% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%)
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- Huge position gap: 15
Stevenage Power
36
Northampton Town FC Power
31
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
8
Stevenage Position+15
Position Gap23
Northampton Town FC Position
Home Win Rate: 46%
Away Win Rate: 20%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.