AI Match Insights
League Two Aug 16, 2025
Grimsby
HomeVS
14:00
Newport County AFC
AwayAI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Grimsby Win
Draw
Newport County AFC Win
Home Win
(51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
79%
Standings
77%
Market
50%
Combined: 52%
Draw Risk: 47%
xG: 1.97 - 1.04
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.0 vs 1.0
Position gap: 14 places
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Grimsby Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Newport County AFC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 (10%)
2-1 (10%)
1-0 (10%)
2-0 (10%)
3-1 (7%)
3-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
56%
Over 2.5 Goals
56%
Under 2.5 Goals
44%
Grimsby Form 10.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | Grimsby vs Shrewsbury | 3-1 |
| Aug 09 | Grimsby vs Harrogate | 3-3 |
| Aug 02 | Grimsby vs Crawley T… | 3-0 |
| May 03 | Grimsby vs AFC Wimbl… | 0-1 |
| May 03 | Grimsby vs AFC Wimbl… | 0-1 |
| Apr 26 | Grimsby vs Milton Ke… | 0-0 |
| Apr 26 | Grimsby vs Milton Ke… | 0-0 |
| Apr 21 | Grimsby vs Port Vale | 2-2 |
| Apr 21 | Grimsby vs Port Vale | 2-2 |
| Apr 18 | Grimsby vs Swindon | 0-4 |
Newport County AFC Form 6.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 12 | Newport C… vs Wigan | 1-0 |
| Aug 12 | Newport C… vs Millwall | 0-1 |
| Aug 09 | Newport C… vs Crawley T… | 1-2 |
| Aug 09 | Newport C… vs Watford | 1-2 |
| Aug 02 | Newport C… vs Newport C… | 1-1 |
| Jul 29 | Newport C… vs Barnet | 2-2 |
| Jul 19 | Newport C… vs Torquay | 3-1 |
| May 17 | Newport C… vs AFC Wimbl… | 1-0 |
| May 10 | Newport C… vs AFC Wimbl… | 0-1 |
| May 03 | Newport C… vs Tranmere … | 1-4 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Newport County AFC struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Newport County AFC | League Two |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Newport County AFC | Pro League |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Grimsby | 0 - 2 | Newport County AFC | League Two |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Grimsby | 0 - 2 | Newport County AFC | Pro League |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 0 - 0 | Grimsby | League Two |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 0 - 0 | Grimsby | Pro League |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 4 - 1 | Grimsby | League Two |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 4 - 1 | Grimsby | Pro League |
| Apr 06, 2024 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Newport County AFC | League Two |
| Apr 06, 2024 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Newport County AFC | Pro League |
Final Verdict
PRO: Grimsby to win (74% confidence)
PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0
74% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_12+ (76.8%)
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
Grimsby Power
38
Newport County AFC Power
26
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
9
Grimsby Position+14
Position Gap23
Newport County AFC Position
Home Win Rate: 43%
Away Win Rate: 21%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.