AI Match Insights

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Primera División - Clausura Sep 27, 2025

Peñarol Montevideo

Home
VS
18:30

Boston River

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Peñarol Montevideo Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Boston River Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 0-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 69%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 0.88 - 0.23
Key Insights
xG dominance: 0.9 vs 0.2
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Peñarol Montevideo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
42%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Boston River Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
80%
1 goals:
18%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0 (33%) 1-0 (29%) 2-0 (13%) 0-1 (8%) 1-1 (7%) 3-0 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 12%
Over 2.5 Goals 10%
Under 2.5 Goals 90%
Peñarol Montevideo Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 24 Peñarol M… vs Tacuarembó 1-2
Sep 21 Peñarol M… vs Juventud 1-0
Sep 20 Peñarol M… vs Club Naci… 3-1
Sep 13 Peñarol M… vs Peñarol M… 2-2
Sep 07 Peñarol M… vs Atletico … 1-1
Sep 06 Peñarol M… vs Plaza Col… 1-0
Aug 31 Peñarol M… vs Racing Cl… 1-4
Aug 30 Peñarol M… vs Defensor … 2-0
Aug 24 Peñarol M… vs River Pla… 2-0
Aug 24 Peñarol M… vs Cerrito 2-1
Boston River Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 20 Boston Ri… vs Plaza Col… 6-1
Sep 13 Boston Ri… vs Racing Cl… 0-0
Sep 06 Boston Ri… vs River Pla… 2-0
Aug 31 Boston Ri… vs Progreso 2-1
Aug 23 Boston Ri… vs Club Naci… 0-0
Aug 15 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 2-1
Aug 08 Boston Ri… vs Atletico … 1-1
Aug 02 Boston Ri… vs Defensor … 4-0
Jun 14 Boston Ri… vs Danubio 1-1
Apr 18 Boston Ri… vs Danubio 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Boston River in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 15, 2025 Boston River 2 - 1 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Feb 15, 2025 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 1 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Oct 19, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 0 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Jun 23, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Apr 20, 2024 Boston River 1 - 3 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Feb 05, 2024 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 0 Boston River Copa Uruguay
Nov 29, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 0 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Sep 02, 2023 Boston River 0 - 1 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Jul 16, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 1 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Feb 20, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Peñarol Montevideo to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Peñarol Montevideo Power 0
Boston River Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.