AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Premiership Oct 04, 2025

Kilmarnock

Home
VS
14:00

St. Mirren

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Kilmarnock Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
St. Mirren Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 88%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 28%
xG: 2.51 - 0.89
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.5 vs 0.9
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Kilmarnock Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
13%
St. Mirren Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
41%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (11%) 2-1 (9%) 3-0 (9%) 1-0 (8%) 3-1 (8%) 1-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
Kilmarnock Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 27 Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd 0-2
Sep 19 Kilmarnock vs St. Mirren 2-2
Sep 14 Kilmarnock vs Celtic 1-2
Aug 30 Kilmarnock vs Motherwell 2-2
Aug 23 Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd 0-0
Aug 17 Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd 2-1
Aug 10 Kilmarnock vs Hibernian 2-2
Aug 02 Kilmarnock vs Livingston 2-2
Jul 26 Kilmarnock vs East Fife 4-0
Jul 22 Kilmarnock vs Kelty Hea… 0-0
St. Mirren Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 27 St. Mirren vs Dundee Utd 1-0
Sep 19 St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock 2-2
Sep 13 St. Mirren vs Falkirk 1-2
Aug 31 St. Mirren vs Hibernian 1-1
Aug 24 St. Mirren vs Rangers FC 1-1
Aug 16 St. Mirren vs Heart of … 1-1
Aug 09 St. Mirren vs Motherwell 0-0
Aug 03 St. Mirren vs Celtic 1-0
Jul 27 St. Mirren vs Ayr Utd 2-1
Jul 19 St. Mirren vs Alloa Ath… 8-2
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 19, 2025 Kilmarnock 2 - 2 St. Mirren League Cup
Mar 29, 2025 St. Mirren 5 - 1 Kilmarnock Premiership
Jan 02, 2025 Kilmarnock 2 - 0 St. Mirren Premiership
Sep 14, 2024 St. Mirren 2 - 2 Kilmarnock Premiership
May 11, 2024 St. Mirren 0 - 1 Kilmarnock Premiership
Mar 16, 2024 Kilmarnock 5 - 2 St. Mirren Premiership
Dec 27, 2023 St. Mirren 0 - 1 Kilmarnock Premiership
Sep 30, 2023 Kilmarnock 1 - 1 St. Mirren Premiership
Apr 22, 2023 St. Mirren 0 - 2 Kilmarnock Premiership
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Kilmarnock Power 0
St. Mirren Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

11

Kilmarnock Position

-2

Position Gap

9

St. Mirren Position
Home Win Rate: 17%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.