AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga 3 Nov 09, 2025

Varzim

Home
VS
20:00

Amarante

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Varzim Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Amarante Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 48%
Market 50%
Combined: 60% Draw Risk: 21%
xG: 2.58 - 0.50
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 0.5
Score Prediction Analysis
Varzim Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Amarante Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
61%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
8%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (15%) 3-0 (13%) 1-0 (12%) 2-1 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 1-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 36%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Under 2.5 Goals 45%
Varzim Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 01 Varzim vs AD Marco … 2-1
Oct 26 Varzim vs Sanjoanen… 3-3
Oct 11 Varzim vs Trofense 2-1
Oct 04 Varzim vs Guimaraes… 1-1
Sep 28 Varzim vs Fafe 1-1
Sep 12 Varzim vs Paredes 2-2
Aug 30 Varzim vs Trofense 5-1
Aug 23 Varzim vs SC Braga B 1-0
Aug 16 Varzim vs São João … 4-0
Aug 10 Varzim vs Amarante 0-1
Amarante Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 02 Amarante vs Trofense 0-1
Oct 26 Amarante vs Paredes 1-0
Oct 19 Amarante vs Leixões SC 1-2
Oct 10 Amarante vs Fafe 3-0
Oct 05 Amarante vs SC Braga B 1-0
Sep 28 Amarante vs São João … 2-2
Sep 21 Amarante vs União San… 2-0
Sep 14 Amarante vs AD Marco … 1-0
Aug 31 Amarante vs Tirsense 1-2
Aug 24 Amarante vs Sanjoanen… 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Amarante struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 10, 2025 Amarante 0 - 1 Varzim Liga 3
Apr 06, 2025 Amarante 2 - 1 Varzim Liga 3
Feb 08, 2025 Varzim 1 - 2 Amarante Liga 3
Dec 15, 2024 Amarante 0 - 1 Varzim Liga 3
Aug 31, 2024 Varzim 1 - 3 Amarante Liga 3
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Varzim to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Varzim Power 0
Amarante Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Varzim Position

-1

Position Gap

2

Amarante Position
Home Win Rate: 39%
Away Win Rate: 44%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.