AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League One May 03, 2025

Mansfield Town FC

Home
VS
14:00

Exeter City

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Mansfield Town FC Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Exeter City Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 59%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 43%
xG: 2.82 - 1.93
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.8 vs 1.9
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Mansfield Town FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
17%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
16%
Exeter City Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
15%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (7%) 2-2 (6%) 3-1 (6%) 3-2 (6%) 1-1 (5%) 1-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Under 2.5 Goals 23%
Mansfield Town FC Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 30 Mansfield… vs Peterboro… 4-2
Apr 27 Mansfield… vs Birmingham 4-0
Apr 21 Mansfield… vs Reading FC 1-5
Apr 18 Mansfield… vs Rotherham… 3-3
Apr 08 Mansfield… vs Leyton Or… 2-3
Apr 05 Mansfield… vs Huddersfi… 2-1
Apr 01 Mansfield… vs Charlton 1-2
Mar 29 Mansfield… vs Bristol C… 1-2
Mar 15 Mansfield… vs Burnley 2-1
Mar 11 Mansfield… vs Exeter Ci… 2-0
Exeter City Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 26 Exeter Ci… vs Huddersfi… 3-1
Apr 21 Exeter Ci… vs Crawley T… 3-1
Apr 18 Exeter Ci… vs Bolton 0-0
Apr 18 Exeter Ci… vs Brighton 0-0
Apr 12 Exeter Ci… vs Bristol C… 1-2
Apr 08 Exeter Ci… vs Wigan 1-1
Apr 05 Exeter Ci… vs Stockport 0-2
Apr 01 Exeter Ci… vs Burnley 1-2
Mar 29 Exeter Ci… vs Wrexham 0-2
Mar 22 Exeter Ci… vs Lincoln 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Mansfield Town FC struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 11, 2025 Exeter City 2 - 0 Mansfield Town FC League One
Mar 04, 2022 Mansfield Town FC 2 - 1 Exeter City League Two
Oct 23, 2021 Exeter City 2 - 1 Mansfield Town FC League Two
Apr 05, 2021 Exeter City 0 - 0 Mansfield Town FC League Two
Sep 26, 2020 Mansfield Town FC 1 - 2 Exeter City League Two
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (33% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 33% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Mansfield Town FC Power 37
Exeter City Power 36
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

11

Mansfield Town FC Position

+2

Position Gap

13

Exeter City Position
Home Win Rate: 46%
Away Win Rate: 27%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.