AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League Two May 11, 2024

Milton Keynes Dons

Home
VS
18:45

Crawley Town

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Milton Keynes Dons Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Crawley Town Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-3
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 67%
Standings 88%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 34%
xG: 4.50 - 4.00
Key Insights
Position gap: 14 places
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Milton Keynes Dons Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Crawley Town Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
2%
1 goals:
7%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
20%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-3 (3%) 3-2 (2%) 2-3 (2%) 2-2 (2%) 3-1 (1%) 1-3 (1%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 97%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Under 2.5 Goals 46%
Milton Keynes Dons Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
May 07 Milton Ke… vs Crawley T… 3-0
Apr 27 Milton Ke… vs Southampt… 4-4
Apr 27 Milton Ke… vs Southampt… 4-4
Apr 20 Milton Ke… vs Harrogate 3-5
Apr 20 Milton Ke… vs Harrogate 3-5
Apr 13 Milton Ke… vs Mansfield… 1-4
Apr 13 Milton Ke… vs Mansfield… 1-4
Apr 06 Milton Ke… vs Forest Gr… 0-2
Apr 01 Milton Ke… vs Newport C… 3-3
Apr 01 Milton Ke… vs Newport C… 3-3
Crawley Town Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
May 07 Crawley T… vs Milton Ke… 3-0
Apr 27 Crawley T… vs Grimsby 2-0
Apr 27 Crawley T… vs Grimsby 2-0
Apr 20 Crawley T… vs Southampt… 2-2
Apr 20 Crawley T… vs Southampt… 2-2
Apr 16 Crawley T… vs Barrow 1-1
Apr 16 Crawley T… vs Barrow 1-1
Apr 13 Crawley T… vs Mancheste… 2-3
Apr 13 Crawley T… vs Mancheste… 2-3
Apr 09 Crawley T… vs Wrexham 4-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Crawley Town in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 07, 2024 Crawley Town 3 - 0 Milton Keynes Dons League Two
Dec 29, 2023 Milton Keynes Dons 2 - 0 Crawley Town Pro League
Final Verdict

PRO: Milton Keynes Dons to win (74% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 74% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_12+ (76.8%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Milton Keynes Dons Power 44
Crawley Town Power 30
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

Milton Keynes Dons Position

+14

Position Gap

20

Crawley Town Position
Home Win Rate: 53%
Away Win Rate: 13%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.