AI Match Insights

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Serie A May 11, 2025

Napoli

Home
VS
18:45

Genoa

Away
AI Predictions 63.0% Confidence
Napoli Win
63.0%
Draw
21.4%
Genoa Win
15.6%
Home Win (63% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 85%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 55% Draw Risk: 40%
xG: 1.56 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.2 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Napoli Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
21%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
13%
4 goals:
5%
Genoa Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (27%) 2-0 (21%) 0-0 (17%) 3-0 (11%) 1-1 (5%) 2-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 14%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Under 2.5 Goals 75%
Napoli Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
May 03 Napoli vs Lecce 0-1
Apr 27 Napoli vs Torino 2-0
Apr 19 Napoli vs Monza 0-1
Apr 14 Napoli vs Empoli 3-0
Apr 07 Napoli vs Bologna 1-1
Mar 30 Napoli vs AC Milan 2-1
Mar 16 Napoli vs Venezia 0-0
Mar 09 Napoli vs Fiorentina 2-1
Mar 01 Napoli vs Inter 1-1
Feb 23 Napoli vs Como 2-1
Genoa Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
May 05 Genoa vs AC Milan 1-2
Apr 27 Genoa vs Como 1-0
Apr 23 Genoa vs Lazio 0-2
Apr 13 Genoa vs Verona 0-0
Apr 04 Genoa vs Udinese 1-0
Mar 29 Genoa vs Juventus 1-0
Mar 14 Genoa vs Lecce 2-1
Mar 07 Genoa vs Cagliari 1-1
Mar 02 Genoa vs Empoli 1-1
Feb 22 Genoa vs Inter 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Napoli in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Genoa struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 21, 2024 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Pro League
Dec 21, 2024 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Feb 17, 2024 Napoli 1 - 1 Genoa Serie A
Feb 17, 2024 Napoli 1 - 1 Genoa Pro League
Sep 16, 2023 Genoa 2 - 2 Napoli Serie A
May 15, 2022 Napoli 3 - 0 Genoa Serie A
Aug 29, 2021 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Feb 06, 2021 Genoa 2 - 1 Napoli Serie A
Sep 27, 2020 Napoli 6 - 0 Genoa Serie A
Jul 08, 2020 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Final Verdict

PRO: Napoli to win (74% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 74% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Napoli Power 40
Genoa Power 32
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Napoli Position

+11

Position Gap

14

Genoa Position
Home Win Rate: 73%
Away Win Rate: 18%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.