AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie B Apr 27, 2024

Monza

Home
VS
12:00

Sudtirol

Away
AI Predictions 39.6% Confidence
Monza Win
33.0%
Draw
27.4%
Sudtirol Win
39.6%
Away Win (40% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 70%
Standings 74%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 54%
xG: 1.88 - 1.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 1.2 Position gap: 7 places
High draw risk (54%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Monza Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
15%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Sudtirol Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
30%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 1-0 (9%) 2-0 (8%) 1-2 (6%) 3-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Under 2.5 Goals 42%
Monza Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 21 Monza vs Atalanta 1-2
Apr 20 Monza vs Ascoli 0-0
Apr 13 Monza vs Bologna 0-0
Apr 12 Monza vs Catanzaro 1-3
Apr 12 Monza vs Catanzaro 1-3
Apr 07 Monza vs Napoli 2-4
Apr 06 Monza vs Ternana 0-0
Apr 01 Monza vs Bari 1-1
Mar 30 Monza vs Torino 1-0
Mar 16 Monza vs Cagliari 1-0
Sudtirol Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 20 Sudtirol vs Cittadella 0-0
Apr 13 Sudtirol vs Sampdoria 0-1
Apr 06 Sudtirol vs Parma 0-0
Apr 01 Sudtirol vs Como 2-0
Mar 16 Sudtirol vs Cremonese 3-0
Mar 09 Sudtirol vs Spezia 2-1
Mar 09 Sudtirol vs Spezia 2-1
Mar 02 Sudtirol vs Lecce 1-0
Feb 27 Sudtirol vs Reggiana … 1-1
Feb 24 Sudtirol vs Bari 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Monza struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Final Verdict

PRO: Monza to win (71% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 71% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Monza Power 43
Sudtirol Power 35
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Monza Position

+7

Position Gap

10

Sudtirol Position
Home Win Rate: 73%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.