AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga May 18, 2024

Arouca

Home
VS
14:30

Guimaraes

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Arouca Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Guimaraes Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 84%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 43%
xG: 1.50 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.5 vs 0.2
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Arouca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
22%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
13%
4 goals:
5%
Guimaraes Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (27%) 2-0 (21%) 0-0 (18%) 3-0 (10%) 1-1 (5%) 2-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 14%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Under 2.5 Goals 76%
Arouca Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
May 12 Arouca vs Benfica 5-0
May 12 Arouca vs Benfica 5-0
May 05 Arouca vs Estrela d… 0-0
May 05 Arouca vs Estrela d… 0-0
Apr 26 Arouca vs GIL Vicen… 2-2
Apr 26 Arouca vs GIL Vicen… 2-2
Apr 19 Arouca vs Rio Ave FC 1-1
Apr 19 Arouca vs Rio Ave FC 1-1
Apr 14 Arouca vs Boavista 2-1
Apr 06 Arouca vs SC Braga 0-3
Guimaraes Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
May 11 Guimaraes vs SC Braga 2-3
May 11 Guimaraes vs SC Braga 2-3
May 04 Guimaraes vs Rio Ave FC 2-1
May 04 Guimaraes vs Rio Ave FC 2-1
Apr 27 Guimaraes vs Boavista 1-0
Apr 27 Guimaraes vs Boavista 1-0
Apr 21 Guimaraes vs Sp Lisbon 3-0
Apr 21 Guimaraes vs Sporting … 3-0
Apr 17 Guimaraes vs FC Porto 3-1
Apr 13 Guimaraes vs Farense 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Guimaraes struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 15, 2024 Guimaraes 2 - 1 Arouca Pro League
Jan 15, 2024 Guimaraes 2 - 1 Arouca Primeira Liga
Mar 11, 2023 Guimaraes 0 - 2 Arouca Primeira Liga
Sep 18, 2022 Arouca 2 - 2 Guimaraes Primeira Liga
Feb 19, 2022 Guimaraes 1 - 3 Arouca Primeira Liga
Sep 18, 2021 Arouca 2 - 2 Guimaraes Primeira Liga
Nov 21, 2020 Arouca 0 - 0 Guimaraes Taça de Portug…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Arouca Power 0
Guimaraes Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

11

Arouca Position

-2

Position Gap

9

Guimaraes Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.