AI Match Insights

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Liga Portugal 2 May 04, 2025

Marítimo

Home
VS
14:30

Moreirense

Away
AI Predictions 59.0% Confidence
Marítimo Win
59.0%
Draw
22.2%
Moreirense Win
18.8%
Home Win (59% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 90%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 50% Draw Risk: 34%
xG: 2.72 - 0.97
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.7 vs 1.0
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Marítimo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
7%
1 goals:
18%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
15%
Moreirense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
38%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (9%) 2-1 (9%) 3-0 (8%) 3-1 (8%) 1-0 (7%) 1-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 58%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Under 2.5 Goals 35%
Marítimo Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 26 Marítimo vs Moreirense 2-2
Apr 20 Marítimo vs Mafra 2-0
Apr 13 Marítimo vs Benfica 1-2
Apr 05 Marítimo vs Leixões SC 1-1
Mar 15 Marítimo vs Felgueira… 0-0
Feb 02 Marítimo vs Chaves 1-1
Jan 25 Marítimo vs Pacos Fer… 2-2
Dec 29 Marítimo vs Moreirense 1-2
Dec 15 Marítimo vs Moreirense 0-3
Dec 01 Marítimo vs Benfica 1-1
Moreirense Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
May 02 Moreirense vs FC Porto 3-1
May 02 Moreirense vs União de … 5-0
Apr 27 Moreirense vs Nacional 1-1
Apr 27 Moreirense vs FC Porto 0-1
Apr 26 Moreirense vs Marítimo 2-2
Apr 25 Moreirense vs Académico… 2-0
Apr 20 Moreirense vs Alverca 4-0
Apr 19 Moreirense vs Académico… 1-2
Apr 19 Moreirense vs Penafiel … 1-2
Apr 18 Moreirense vs Sporting … 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Moreirense struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 26, 2025 Moreirense 2 - 2 Marítimo Liga Portugal 2
Dec 29, 2024 Marítimo 1 - 2 Moreirense Liga Portugal 2
Dec 15, 2024 Marítimo 0 - 3 Moreirense Liga Portugal 2
Nov 23, 2024 Moreirense 1 - 0 Marítimo Liga Portugal 2
May 12, 2024 Marítimo 2 - 1 Moreirense Liga Portugal 2
Apr 27, 2024 Marítimo 3 - 2 Moreirense Liga Portugal 2
Apr 07, 2024 Moreirense 0 - 0 Marítimo Liga Portugal 2
Jan 06, 2024 Moreirense 1 - 1 Marítimo Liga Portugal 2
Dec 17, 2023 Moreirense 0 - 1 Marítimo Liga Portugal 2
Nov 19, 2023 Marítimo 1 - 2 Moreirense Liga Portugal 2
Final Verdict

MASTER: Marítimo to win (78% confidence)

MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0 78% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 98
Marítimo Power 0
Moreirense Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.