AI Match Insights

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Liga Portugal 2 Apr 28, 2024

Tondela

Home
VS
13:00

Benfica

Away
AI Predictions 46.0% Confidence
Tondela Win
25.0%
Draw
29.0%
Benfica Win
46.0%
Away Win (46% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 67%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 44% Draw Risk: 44%
xG: 1.72 - 1.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.7 vs 1.2
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Tondela Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
18%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
15%
4 goals:
7%
Benfica Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
30%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 (11%) 2-1 (10%) 1-0 (9%) 2-0 (8%) 1-2 (7%) 0-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 57%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Under 2.5 Goals 45%
Tondela Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 20 Tondela vs Santa Cla… 1-0
Jan 09 Tondela vs Sporting … 4-0
Jan 06 Tondela vs Nacional 1-1
Dec 23 Tondela vs Sporting … 1-2
Nov 26 Tondela vs Moreirense 1-1
Apr 29 Tondela vs Moreirense 2-1
Jan 29 Tondela vs Nacional 1-0
Dec 09 Tondela vs Famalicao 0-0
Nov 14 Tondela vs Moreirense 1-1
Nov 09 Tondela vs Nacional 1-0
Benfica Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 27 Benfica vs SC Braga 3-1
Apr 27 Benfica vs SC Braga 3-1
Apr 22 Benfica vs Farense 1-3
Apr 22 Benfica vs Farense 1-3
Apr 22 Benfica vs Nacional 3-1
Apr 18 Benfica vs Marseille 1-0
Apr 14 Benfica vs Moreirense 3-0
Apr 14 Benfica vs Sporting … 3-1
Apr 14 Benfica vs Moreirense 3-0
Apr 11 Benfica vs Marseille 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Benfica in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
  • Tondela struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 07, 2022 Tondela 1 - 3 Benfica Primeira Liga
Aug 29, 2021 Benfica 2 - 1 Tondela Primeira Liga
Apr 30, 2021 Tondela 0 - 2 Benfica Primeira Liga
Jan 08, 2021 Benfica 2 - 0 Tondela Primeira Liga
Jun 04, 2020 Benfica 0 - 0 Tondela Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Tondela to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tondela Power 0
Benfica Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.