AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Taça de Portugal Nov 25, 2023

Nacional

Home
VS
15:00

Casa Pia AC

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Nacional Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Casa Pia AC Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.18 - 0.27
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.2 vs 0.3
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Nacional Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
31%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
3%
Casa Pia AC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
76%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
3%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (28%) 0-0 (23%) 2-0 (16%) 1-1 (7%) 3-0 (6%) 0-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 16%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Under 2.5 Goals 82%
Nacional Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 19 Nacional vs AVS 0-1
Nov 04 Nacional vs Santa Cla… 1-1
Jan 29 Nacional vs Tondela 1-0
Nov 27 Nacional vs GIL Vicen… 2-0
Nov 09 Nacional vs Tondela 1-0
Aug 06 Nacional vs Tondela 0-1
Jul 31 Nacional vs Santa Cla… 1-2
Apr 10 Nacional vs Rio Ave FC 2-0
Nov 28 Nacional vs Rio Ave FC 1-0
May 19 Nacional vs Rio Ave FC 1-2
Casa Pia AC Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 02 Casa Pia … vs GIL Vicen… 2-0
Sep 23 Casa Pia … vs Guimaraes 0-0
Sep 02 Casa Pia … vs Rio Ave FC 1-1
Aug 18 Casa Pia … vs Sporting … 1-2
May 27 Casa Pia … vs GIL Vicen… 1-0
May 14 Casa Pia … vs FC Porto 2-1
Apr 16 Casa Pia … vs Rio Ave FC 1-1
Apr 09 Casa Pia … vs Sporting … 3-4
Feb 19 Casa Pia … vs Guimaraes 0-0
Jan 29 Casa Pia … vs Santa Cla… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Casa Pia AC struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Nacional to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Nacional Power 0
Casa Pia AC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.