AI Match Insights

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Eerste Divisie Apr 19, 2025

De Graafschap

Home
VS
19:00

Jong Ajax

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
De Graafschap Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Jong Ajax Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 82%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 38%
xG: 1.60 - 0.68
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.7 Position gap: 15 places
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
De Graafschap Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
20%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
14%
4 goals:
6%
Jong Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
51%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
12%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (16%) 2-0 (13%) 1-1 (11%) 0-0 (10%) 2-1 (9%) 3-0 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 39%
Over 2.5 Goals 39%
Under 2.5 Goals 61%
De Graafschap Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 11 De Graafs… vs PSV Eindh… 1-0
Apr 06 De Graafs… vs Roda 2-0
Mar 16 De Graafs… vs FC OSS 0-2
Feb 16 De Graafs… vs Vitesse 2-0
Feb 07 De Graafs… vs Den Bosch 1-0
Feb 03 De Graafs… vs ADO Den H… 1-2
Jan 20 De Graafs… vs Utrecht 1-1
Jan 16 De Graafs… vs Heracles 0-2
Dec 19 De Graafs… vs Sparta Ni… 4-0
Dec 09 De Graafs… vs Jong Ajax 2-0
Jong Ajax Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 09 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 2-0
Mar 11 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 0-2
Aug 21 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 1-2
Jan 13 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 3-0
Aug 22 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 5-1
May 06 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 1-1
Nov 26 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 1-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • De Graafschap in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Jong Ajax in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 09, 2024 Jong Ajax 2 - 0 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Mar 11, 2024 De Graafschap 0 - 2 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Aug 21, 2023 Jong Ajax 1 - 2 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Jan 13, 2023 De Graafschap 3 - 0 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Aug 22, 2022 Jong Ajax 5 - 1 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
May 06, 2022 Jong Ajax 1 - 1 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Nov 26, 2021 De Graafschap 1 - 3 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Final Verdict

STANDARD: De Graafschap to win (60% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 60% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 94
De Graafschap Power 0
Jong Ajax Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

De Graafschap Position

+15

Position Gap

20

Jong Ajax Position
Home Win Rate: 42%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.