AI Match Insights

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KNVB Beker Jan 14, 2025

AZ Alkmaar

Home
VS
17:45

Ajax

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
AZ Alkmaar Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Ajax Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 69%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 43%
xG: 1.16 - 0.52
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.2 vs 0.5
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
AZ Alkmaar Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
31%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
60%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
8%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (22%) 0-0 (19%) 2-0 (13%) 1-1 (11%) 0-1 (10%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 28%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Under 2.5 Goals 76%
AZ Alkmaar Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 11 AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindh… 2-2
Dec 21 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente 1-0
Dec 21 AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente 1-0
Dec 18 AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen 3-1
Dec 15 AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda 1-2
Dec 08 AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax 2-1
Dec 08 AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax 2-1
Dec 01 AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles 1-0
Nov 24 AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Ro… 1-2
Nov 10 AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II 1-2
Ajax Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 11 Ajax vs Waalwijk 2-1
Dec 22 Ajax vs Sparta Ro… 0-2
Dec 19 Ajax vs Telstar 2-0
Dec 15 Ajax vs Almere Ci… 3-0
Dec 08 Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar 2-1
Dec 08 Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar 2-1
Dec 04 Ajax vs Utrecht 2-2
Dec 04 Ajax vs Utrecht 2-2
Dec 01 Ajax vs Nijmegen 1-2
Nov 24 Ajax vs Zwolle 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • AZ Alkmaar in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Ajax in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 08, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Eredivisie
Dec 08, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Pro League
Feb 25, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax Eredivisie
Feb 25, 2024 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 0 Ajax Pro League
Oct 08, 2023 Ajax 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
May 06, 2023 Ajax 0 - 0 AZ Alkmaar Eredivisie
Sep 18, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax Eredivisie
May 08, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 2 - 2 Ajax Eredivisie
Mar 03, 2022 AZ Alkmaar 0 - 2 Ajax KNVB Beker
Final Verdict

STANDARD: AZ Alkmaar to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
AZ Alkmaar Power 0
Ajax Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.