AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie A Dec 03, 2023

Athletico Paranaense

Home
VS
21:30

Santos

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Athletico Paranaense Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Santos Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 61%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 29%
xG: 4.02 - 0.41
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.0 vs 0.4 Position gap: 7 places
High draw risk (29%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Athletico Paranaense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
2%
1 goals:
7%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
20%
Santos Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
66%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (13%) 2-0 (10%) 3-1 (5%) 1-0 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 1-1 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 33%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Under 2.5 Goals 40%
Athletico Paranaense Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 30 Athletico… vs Cruzeiro 1-1
Nov 25 Athletico… vs Vasco DA … 0-0
Nov 25 Athletico… vs Guaraní C… 3-0
Nov 18 Athletico… vs Mirassol 4-1
Oct 28 Athletico… vs Vila Nova 2-1
Oct 01 Athletico… vs Corinthia… 2-0
Aug 05 Athletico… vs Santos 1-1
Jul 01 Athletico… vs Vila Nova 1-1
May 14 Athletico… vs Corinthia… 3-2
Apr 09 Athletico… vs Goiás 3-1
Santos Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 29 Santos vs Fluminense 0-3
Nov 26 Santos vs Botafogo 1-1
Nov 12 Santos vs São Paulo… 0-0
Oct 29 Santos vs Corinthia… 1-1
Oct 22 Santos vs Internaci… 7-1
Oct 19 Santos vs RB Bragan… 1-3
Oct 08 Santos vs Palmeiras 1-2
Sep 14 Santos vs Cruzeiro 0-3
Aug 05 Santos vs Athletico… 1-1
Jul 29 Santos vs Fluminense 1-0
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 05, 2023 Santos 1 - 1 Athletico Paranaense Serie A
Sep 28, 2022 Santos 2 - 0 Athletico Paranaense Serie A
Jun 04, 2022 Athletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Santos Serie A
Oct 30, 2021 Athletico Paranaense 0 - 1 Santos Serie A
Sep 15, 2021 Santos 0 - 1 Athletico Paranaense Copa do Brasil
Aug 25, 2021 Athletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Santos Copa do Brasil
Jul 06, 2021 Santos 2 - 1 Athletico Paranaense Serie A
Nov 21, 2020 Athletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Santos Serie A
Aug 16, 2020 Santos 3 - 1 Athletico Paranaense Serie A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Athletico Paranaense to win (60% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 60% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Athletico Paranaense Power 0
Santos Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

10

Athletico Paranaense Position

+7

Position Gap

17

Santos Position
Home Win Rate: 0%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.