AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Challenge League Apr 27, 2025

FC Vaduz

Home
VS
12:15

Étoile Carouge

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
FC Vaduz Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Étoile Carouge Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 76%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 53%
xG: 1.38 - 0.82
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.8 Position gap: 8 places
High draw risk (53%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
FC Vaduz Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
25%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Étoile Carouge Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
44%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (15%) 1-1 (13%) 0-0 (11%) 2-0 (11%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (9%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 42%
Over 2.5 Goals 37%
Under 2.5 Goals 63%
FC Vaduz Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 18 FC Vaduz vs FC Aarau 2-2
Apr 12 FC Vaduz vs Bellinzona 3-1
Apr 06 FC Vaduz vs Neuchâtel… 2-1
Apr 01 FC Vaduz vs FC WIL 19… 0-3
Mar 28 FC Vaduz vs Stade Lau… 0-1
Mar 16 FC Vaduz vs Bellinzona 3-1
Mar 02 FC Vaduz vs Étoile Ca… 3-2
Feb 23 FC Vaduz vs FC Aarau 0-1
Feb 14 FC Vaduz vs Neuchâtel… 0-0
Feb 09 FC Vaduz vs FC WIL 19… 1-0
Étoile Carouge Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 18 Étoile Ca… vs FC Schaff… 0-2
Apr 13 Étoile Ca… vs FC WIL 19… 2-2
Apr 05 Étoile Ca… vs Bellinzona 7-0
Mar 31 Étoile Ca… vs Stade Nyo… 2-1
Mar 28 Étoile Ca… vs FC Aarau 2-2
Mar 07 Étoile Ca… vs Stade Nyo… 0-3
Mar 02 Étoile Ca… vs FC Vaduz 3-2
Feb 26 Étoile Ca… vs FC Basel … 1-3
Jan 31 Étoile Ca… vs Stade Lau… 1-0
Jan 24 Étoile Ca… vs FC WIL 19… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 02, 2025 Étoile Carouge 3 - 2 FC Vaduz Challenge Leag…
Dec 14, 2024 FC Vaduz 3 - 2 Étoile Carouge Challenge Leag…
Sep 24, 2024 Étoile Carouge 1 - 0 FC Vaduz Challenge Leag…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: FC Vaduz to win (63% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
FC Vaduz Power 0
Étoile Carouge Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

FC Vaduz Position

+8

Position Gap

9

Étoile Carouge Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 10%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.