AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
FA Cup Nov 25, 2023

Alloa Athletic

Home
VS
15:00

Dumbarton

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Alloa Athletic Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Dumbarton Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 37%
xG: 1.70 - 0.81
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.7 vs 0.8
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Alloa Athletic Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
18%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
15%
4 goals:
6%
Dumbarton Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
45%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (14%) 2-0 (12%) 1-1 (11%) 2-1 (10%) 0-0 (8%) 3-0 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 45%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Under 2.5 Goals 55%
Alloa Athletic Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 21 Alloa Ath… vs Elgin City 1-0
Nov 18 Alloa Ath… vs Edinburgh… 3-0
Nov 11 Alloa Ath… vs Clyde 1-1
Nov 11 Alloa Ath… vs Queen of … 1-0
Nov 04 Alloa Ath… vs Stirling … 0-2
Oct 28 Alloa Ath… vs Edinburgh… 3-2
Oct 21 Alloa Ath… vs Kelty Hea… 3-1
Sep 30 Alloa Ath… vs Edinburgh… 1-1
Sep 23 Alloa Ath… vs Stranraer 0-2
Sep 16 Alloa Ath… vs Hamilton … 2-1
Dumbarton Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 18 Dumbarton vs Elgin City 1-0
Oct 21 Dumbarton vs Spartans 2-0
Oct 07 Dumbarton vs Clyde 0-4
Sep 30 Dumbarton vs Stranraer 3-1
Sep 16 Dumbarton vs Elgin City 2-0
Aug 26 Dumbarton vs Stenhouse… 2-4
Aug 19 Dumbarton vs Forfar At… 3-1
Aug 12 Dumbarton vs Spartans 1-1
Jul 18 Dumbarton vs Inverness… 2-1
May 13 Dumbarton vs Alloa Ath… 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Dumbarton in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 13, 2023 Dumbarton 0 - 0 Alloa Athletic League One
May 09, 2023 Alloa Athletic 6 - 0 Dumbarton League One
Apr 08, 2023 Alloa Athletic 3 - 1 Dumbarton League Two
Apr 02, 2022 Alloa Athletic 2 - 3 Dumbarton League One
Feb 19, 2022 Dumbarton 1 - 2 Alloa Athletic League One
Nov 20, 2021 Alloa Athletic 1 - 2 Dumbarton League One
Sep 25, 2021 Dumbarton 1 - 1 Alloa Athletic League One
Apr 27, 2021 Dumbarton 1 - 0 Alloa Athletic League One
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Alloa Athletic to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Alloa Athletic Power 0
Dumbarton Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.