AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League One Mar 29, 2025

Alloa Athletic

Home
VS
15:00

Dumbarton

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Alloa Athletic Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Dumbarton Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 50%
xG: 1.43 - 0.54
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.5
High draw risk (50%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Alloa Athletic Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
24%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
12%
4 goals:
4%
Dumbarton Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
58%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (20%) 2-0 (14%) 0-0 (14%) 1-1 (11%) 2-1 (8%) 0-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 32%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Under 2.5 Goals 69%
Alloa Athletic Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 22 Alloa Ath… vs Inverness… 1-1
Mar 22 Alloa Ath… vs Montrose 3-1
Mar 22 Alloa Ath… vs Stranraer 0-1
Mar 15 Alloa Ath… vs Inverness… 0-1
Mar 15 Alloa Ath… vs Queen of … 3-2
Mar 15 Alloa Ath… vs Spartans 0-2
Mar 08 Alloa Ath… vs Stenhouse… 0-2
Mar 08 Alloa Ath… vs Elgin City 0-1
Mar 04 Alloa Ath… vs Stranraer 1-2
Mar 01 Alloa Ath… vs Rangers FC 2-1
Dumbarton Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 22 Dumbarton vs Queen of … 0-0
Mar 15 Dumbarton vs Arbroath 1-1
Mar 08 Dumbarton vs Inverness… 0-1
Mar 01 Dumbarton vs Stenhouse… 1-3
Feb 08 Dumbarton vs Alloa Ath… 2-1
Feb 01 Dumbarton vs Alloa Ath… 1-1
Jan 18 Dumbarton vs Airdrieon… 1-5
Jan 04 Dumbarton vs Inverness… 2-0
Dec 14 Dumbarton vs Alloa Ath… 1-5
Dec 07 Dumbarton vs Stenhouse… 4-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Dumbarton struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 08, 2025 Alloa Athletic 2 - 1 Dumbarton League One
Feb 01, 2025 Dumbarton 1 - 1 Alloa Athletic League One
Dec 14, 2024 Dumbarton 1 - 5 Alloa Athletic League One
Dec 03, 2024 Alloa Athletic 2 - 2 Dumbarton League One
Nov 29, 2024 Dumbarton 3 - 2 Alloa Athletic FA Cup
Sep 14, 2024 Alloa Athletic 1 - 1 Dumbarton League One
Aug 10, 2024 Dumbarton 3 - 3 Alloa Athletic League One
Nov 25, 2023 Alloa Athletic 4 - 5 Dumbarton FA Cup
May 13, 2023 Dumbarton 0 - 0 Alloa Athletic League One
May 09, 2023 Alloa Athletic 6 - 0 Dumbarton League One
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Alloa Athletic to win (60% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 60% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 95
Alloa Athletic Power 0
Dumbarton Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.