AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga MX Apr 20, 2025

Toluca

Home
VS
01:05

Cruz Azul

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Toluca Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Cruz Azul Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 84%
Standings 44%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 35%
xG: 1.61 - 0.35
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.3
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Toluca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
20%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
14%
4 goals:
6%
Cruz Azul Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
71%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
4%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (23%) 2-0 (18%) 0-0 (14%) 3-0 (10%) 1-1 (8%) 2-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 24%
Over 2.5 Goals 31%
Under 2.5 Goals 69%
Toluca Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 17 Toluca vs Atletico … 0-1
Apr 13 Toluca vs Atlas 2-3
Apr 07 Toluca vs Santos La… 2-1
Mar 15 Toluca vs Puebla 0-3
Mar 01 Toluca vs Club Amér… 3-0
Feb 02 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 1-0
Jan 19 Toluca vs Monterrey 1-1
Nov 30 Toluca vs Club Amér… 0-2
Nov 28 Toluca vs Club Amér… 2-0
Nov 10 Toluca vs Club Amér… 4-0
Cruz Azul Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 16 Cruz Azul vs León FC 2-1
Apr 13 Cruz Azul vs Club Amér… 0-0
Apr 06 Cruz Azul vs U.N.A.M. … 3-2
Mar 30 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 0-1
Feb 16 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 2-1
Jan 25 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 1-1
Jan 18 Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez 1-0
Jan 12 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 1-1
Nov 10 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 1-1
Nov 07 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 2-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Toluca in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Cruz Azul in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jul 21, 2024 Cruz Azul 1 - 1 Toluca Liga MX
Apr 28, 2024 Toluca 0 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Jul 08, 2023 Cruz Azul 0 - 2 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 12, 2023 Toluca 3 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Dec 23, 2022 Toluca 1 - 1 Cruz Azul Copa por México
Aug 14, 2022 Cruz Azul 2 - 3 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 21, 2022 Toluca 1 - 4 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Aug 15, 2021 Cruz Azul 4 - 0 Toluca Liga MX
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Toluca Power 0
Cruz Azul Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Toluca Position

-3

Position Gap

2

Cruz Azul Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.