AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga MX Apr 28, 2024

Toluca

Home
VS
01:00

Cruz Azul

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Toluca Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Cruz Azul Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 71%
Standings 44%
Market 50%
Combined: 44% Draw Risk: 53%
xG: 1.06 - 0.33
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.1 vs 0.3
High draw risk (53%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Toluca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
35%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Cruz Azul Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
72%
1 goals:
24%
2 goals:
4%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (26%) 0-0 (25%) 2-0 (14%) 1-1 (9%) 0-1 (8%) 3-0 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 18%
Over 2.5 Goals 16%
Under 2.5 Goals 84%
Toluca Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 20 Toluca vs Atletico … 1-5
Apr 14 Toluca vs Club Amér… 5-1
Apr 07 Toluca vs Atlas 4-1
Mar 02 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 2-1
Feb 22 Toluca vs Santos La… 1-0
Feb 19 Toluca vs Monterrey 0-0
Jan 27 Toluca vs Puebla 1-1
Nov 06 Toluca vs Santos La… 3-1
Nov 01 Toluca vs Puebla 0-1
Oct 05 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 2-2
Cruz Azul Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 22 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 2-2
Apr 13 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 0-1
Apr 07 Cruz Azul vs Monterrey 2-1
Mar 31 Cruz Azul vs U.N.A.M. … 0-0
Mar 03 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 3-0
Feb 22 Cruz Azul vs León FC 2-3
Feb 18 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 1-0
Jan 20 Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez 0-0
Nov 13 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 1-2
Nov 05 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Toluca in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Cruz Azul in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jul 08, 2023 Cruz Azul 0 - 2 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 12, 2023 Toluca 3 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Dec 23, 2022 Toluca 1 - 1 Cruz Azul Copa por México
Aug 14, 2022 Cruz Azul 2 - 3 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 21, 2022 Toluca 1 - 4 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Aug 15, 2021 Cruz Azul 4 - 0 Toluca Liga MX
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Toluca Power 0
Cruz Azul Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Toluca Position

-3

Position Gap

2

Cruz Azul Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.