AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Copa Uruguay Feb 05, 2024

Peñarol Montevideo

Home
VS
23:30

Boston River

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
Peñarol Montevideo Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Boston River Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 93%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 2.25 - 0.28
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.2 vs 0.3
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Peñarol Montevideo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
11%
1 goals:
24%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
11%
Boston River Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
76%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
3%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (20%) 1-0 (18%) 3-0 (15%) 0-0 (8%) 2-1 (6%) 1-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 22%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Under 2.5 Goals 56%
Peñarol Montevideo Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Peñarol M… vs Defensor … 1-0
Dec 16 Peñarol M… vs Peñarol M… 0-1
Dec 13 Peñarol M… vs Peñarol M… 2-0
Dec 09 Peñarol M… vs Peñarol M… 0-1
Dec 06 Peñarol M… vs Rangers FC 0-0
Dec 06 Peñarol M… vs River Pla… 2-1
Dec 03 Peñarol M… vs Deportivo… 0-2
Dec 02 Peñarol M… vs Racing Cl… 1-1
Nov 29 Peñarol M… vs Boston Ri… 2-0
Nov 28 Peñarol M… vs Fenix 0-1
Boston River Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 08 Boston Ri… vs Plaza Col… 3-2
Dec 03 Boston Ri… vs Cerro Lar… 0-1
Nov 29 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 2-0
Nov 24 Boston Ri… vs Atletico … 2-0
Nov 20 Boston Ri… vs Defensor … 2-0
Nov 16 Boston Ri… vs La Luz 1-2
Oct 24 Boston Ri… vs Danubio 1-1
Sep 02 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 0-1
Jul 16 Boston Ri… vs Peñarol M… 2-1
Jul 02 Boston Ri… vs Danubio 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Boston River struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 29, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 0 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Sep 02, 2023 Boston River 0 - 1 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Jul 16, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 2 - 1 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Feb 20, 2023 Peñarol Montevideo 1 - 0 Boston River Primera Divisi…
Oct 12, 2022 Boston River 2 - 1 Peñarol Montevideo Primera Divisi…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Peñarol Montevideo to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Peñarol Montevideo Power 0
Boston River Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.