AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League May 18, 2024

Wellington Phoenix

Home
VS
06:30

Melbourne Victory

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Wellington Phoenix Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Melbourne Victory Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 50% Draw Risk: 29%
xG: 3.12 - 0.58
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.1 vs 0.6
High draw risk (29%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Wellington Phoenix Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
14%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
17%
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
56%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (13%) 2-0 (12%) 1-0 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 2-1 (7%) 1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 42%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
Wellington Phoenix Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
May 12 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 0-0
Apr 27 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 3-0
Apr 19 Wellingto… vs Newcastle… 1-1
Apr 12 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-0
Apr 06 Wellingto… vs Central C… 2-1
Mar 30 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 1-0
Mar 16 Wellingto… vs Sydney 2-1
Mar 09 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-0
Mar 03 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 3-2
Feb 18 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 1-2
Melbourne Victory Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
May 12 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 0-0
May 05 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 1-1
Apr 27 Melbourne… vs Western S… 3-4
Apr 20 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 0-0
Apr 12 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 1-0
Apr 06 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 2-1
Mar 31 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 2-1
Mar 14 Melbourne… vs Western U… 2-2
Mar 09 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-2
Mar 03 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 3-2
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 12, 2024 Melbourne Victory 0 - 0 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 12, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 0 Melbourne Victory A-League
Jan 19, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Nov 10, 2023 Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 01, 2023 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
Feb 03, 2023 Melbourne Victory 3 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Wellington Phoenix Power 0
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

10

Wellington Phoenix Position

-2

Position Gap

8

Melbourne Victory Position
Home Win Rate: 38%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.