AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League May 12, 2024

Melbourne Victory

Home
VS
06:00

Wellington Phoenix

Away
AI Predictions 38.0% Confidence
Melbourne Victory Win
35.0%
Draw
27.0%
Wellington Phoenix Win
38.0%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 69%
Standings 62%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 44%
xG: 1.50 - 0.86
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.5 vs 0.9
High draw risk (44%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
22%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
13%
4 goals:
5%
Wellington Phoenix Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
42%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (14%) 1-1 (12%) 2-0 (11%) 0-0 (9%) 2-1 (9%) 0-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 45%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Under 2.5 Goals 58%
Melbourne Victory Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
May 05 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 1-1
Apr 27 Melbourne… vs Western S… 3-4
Apr 20 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 0-0
Apr 12 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 1-0
Apr 06 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 2-1
Mar 31 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 2-1
Mar 14 Melbourne… vs Western U… 2-2
Mar 09 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-2
Mar 03 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 3-2
Feb 25 Melbourne… vs Central C… 0-1
Wellington Phoenix Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 27 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 3-0
Apr 19 Wellingto… vs Newcastle… 1-1
Apr 12 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-0
Apr 06 Wellingto… vs Central C… 2-1
Mar 30 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 1-0
Mar 16 Wellingto… vs Sydney 2-1
Mar 09 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-0
Mar 03 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 3-2
Feb 18 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 1-2
Feb 06 Wellingto… vs Central C… 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Wellington Phoenix in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 12, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 0 Melbourne Victory A-League
Jan 19, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Nov 10, 2023 Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 01, 2023 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
Feb 03, 2023 Melbourne Victory 3 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Wellington Phoenix Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Melbourne Victory Position

+2

Position Gap

10

Wellington Phoenix Position
Home Win Rate: 57%
Away Win Rate: 29%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.