AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Apr 12, 2024

Wellington Phoenix

Home
VS
07:00

Melbourne Victory

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Wellington Phoenix Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Melbourne Victory Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 81%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 35%
xG: 1.76 - 0.72
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.8 vs 0.7
High draw risk (35%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Wellington Phoenix Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
17%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
16%
4 goals:
7%
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
49%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
13%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (15%) 2-0 (13%) 1-1 (11%) 2-1 (9%) 0-0 (8%) 3-0 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 42%
Over 2.5 Goals 44%
Under 2.5 Goals 56%
Wellington Phoenix Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 06 Wellingto… vs Central C… 2-1
Mar 30 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 1-0
Mar 16 Wellingto… vs Sydney 2-1
Mar 09 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-0
Mar 03 Wellingto… vs Adelaide … 3-2
Feb 18 Wellingto… vs Macarthur… 1-2
Feb 06 Wellingto… vs Central C… 0-0
Feb 02 Wellingto… vs Brisbane … 1-1
Jan 27 Wellingto… vs Newcastle… 1-2
Jan 19 Wellingto… vs Melbourne… 1-1
Melbourne Victory Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 06 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 2-1
Mar 31 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 2-1
Mar 14 Melbourne… vs Western U… 2-2
Mar 09 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-2
Mar 03 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 3-2
Feb 25 Melbourne… vs Central C… 0-1
Feb 17 Melbourne… vs Melbourne… 0-0
Feb 10 Melbourne… vs Macarthur… 0-1
Jan 26 Melbourne… vs Sydney 1-1
Jan 19 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Wellington Phoenix in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Melbourne Victory in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 19, 2024 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Nov 10, 2023 Melbourne Victory 1 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Apr 01, 2023 Wellington Phoenix 1 - 2 Melbourne Victory A-League
Feb 03, 2023 Melbourne Victory 3 - 1 Wellington Phoenix A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Wellington Phoenix Power 0
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

10

Wellington Phoenix Position

-2

Position Gap

8

Melbourne Victory Position
Home Win Rate: 38%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.