AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga MX Aug 24, 2025

Cruz Azul

Home
VS
03:05

Toluca

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Cruz Azul Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Toluca Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 71%
Standings 75%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 38%
xG: 1.48 - 0.73
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.5 vs 0.7
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Cruz Azul Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
23%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
12%
4 goals:
5%
Toluca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
48%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
13%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (16%) 2-0 (12%) 1-1 (12%) 0-0 (11%) 2-1 (9%) 0-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 40%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Under 2.5 Goals 62%
Cruz Azul Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 17 Cruz Azul vs Santos La… 3-2
Aug 12 Cruz Azul vs Atletico … 1-2
Jul 27 Cruz Azul vs León FC 4-1
Jul 20 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 3-3
Jul 13 Cruz Azul vs Mazatlán … 0-0
May 19 Cruz Azul vs Club Amér… 2-1
May 16 Cruz Azul vs Club Amér… 1-0
May 12 Cruz Azul vs León FC 2-1
May 09 Cruz Azul vs León FC 2-3
May 02 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 1-0
Toluca Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 17 Toluca vs U.N.A.M. … 1-1
Aug 12 Toluca vs FC Juarez 0-2
Jul 27 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 3-4
Jul 21 Toluca vs Club Amér… 1-3
Jul 17 Toluca vs Santos La… 2-4
Jul 13 Toluca vs Necaxa 3-1
May 26 Toluca vs Club Amér… 2-0
May 23 Toluca vs Club Amér… 0-0
May 18 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 3-0
May 15 Toluca vs Tigres UA… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Cruz Azul in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Toluca in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 20, 2025 Toluca 2 - 2 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Jul 21, 2024 Cruz Azul 1 - 1 Toluca Liga MX
Apr 28, 2024 Toluca 0 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Jul 08, 2023 Cruz Azul 0 - 2 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 12, 2023 Toluca 3 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Dec 23, 2022 Toluca 1 - 1 Cruz Azul Copa por México
Aug 14, 2022 Cruz Azul 2 - 3 Toluca Liga MX
Feb 21, 2022 Toluca 1 - 4 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Aug 15, 2021 Cruz Azul 4 - 0 Toluca Liga MX
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Cruz Azul to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Cruz Azul Power 0
Toluca Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Cruz Azul Position

+3

Position Gap

5

Toluca Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.