AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primera A Oct 26, 2025

Atlético Nacional

Home
VS
23:30

Independiente Medellin

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Atlético Nacional Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
Independiente Medellin Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 83%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 38%
xG: 2.18 - 0.99
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.2 vs 1.0 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Atlético Nacional Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
11%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
11%
Independiente Medellin Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
37%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 1-0 (9%) 1-1 (9%) 3-0 (7%) 3-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 56%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
Atlético Nacional Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 22 Atlético … vs Once Cald… 2-0
Oct 18 Atlético … vs Deportivo… 2-2
Oct 15 Atlético … vs Deportivo… 2-1
Oct 10 Atlético … vs Once Cald… 0-1
Oct 06 Atlético … vs Chico 1-1
Sep 28 Atlético … vs Millonari… 2-0
Sep 21 Atlético … vs Union Mag… 1-2
Sep 14 Atlético … vs Bucaraman… 0-1
Sep 08 Atlético … vs Independi… 3-3
Sep 04 Atlético … vs Quindio 2-2
Independiente Medellin Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 21 Independi… vs Santa Fe 1-1
Oct 17 Independi… vs Fortaleza… 3-1
Oct 13 Independi… vs Once Cald… 1-5
Oct 08 Independi… vs Rionegro … 2-1
Oct 02 Independi… vs Santa Fe 0-3
Sep 27 Independi… vs Deportes … 2-3
Sep 24 Independi… vs Santa Fe 1-2
Sep 21 Independi… vs Junior 2-2
Sep 08 Independi… vs Atlético … 3-3
Sep 04 Independi… vs Fortaleza… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • AtlĂ©tico Nacional in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Independiente Medellin in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 08, 2025 Independiente Medel… 3 - 3 Atlético Nacional Primera A
May 04, 2025 Independiente Medel… 1 - 1 Atlético Nacional Primera A
Mar 22, 2025 Atlético Nacional 1 - 1 Independiente Medel… Primera A
Nov 18, 2024 Independiente Medel… 1 - 0 Atlético Nacional Copa Colombia
Nov 11, 2024 Atlético Nacional 1 - 1 Independiente Medel… Primera A
Nov 01, 2024 Atlético Nacional 2 - 0 Independiente Medel… Copa Colombia
Jul 03, 2024 Independiente Medel… 1 - 2 Atlético Nacional Liga Femenina
Jun 19, 2024 Atlético Nacional 2 - 2 Independiente Medel… Liga Femenina
Apr 22, 2024 Independiente Medel… 2 - 2 Atlético Nacional Primera A
Dec 03, 2023 Atlético Nacional 0 - 5 Independiente Medel… Primera A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Atlético Nacional to win (63% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Atlético Nacional Power 0
Independiente Medellin Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

Atlético Nacional Position

+11

Position Gap

17

Independiente Medellin Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.