AI Match Insights
Challenge League Oct 26, 2025
FC Vaduz
HomeVS
13:00
Étoile Carouge
AwayAI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
FC Vaduz Win
Draw
Étoile Carouge Win
Home Win
(51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)
M85+S60 (75.3%)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)
HOME_FORT (73.3%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
76%
Market
50%
Combined: 55%
Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 3.22 - 0.47
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.2 vs 0.5
Position gap: 8 places
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
FC Vaduz Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Étoile Carouge Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (14%)
2-0 (13%)
1-0 (8%)
3-1 (7%)
2-1 (6%)
1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
36%
Over 2.5 Goals
61%
Under 2.5 Goals
39%
FC Vaduz Form 14.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | FC Vaduz vs FC WIL 19… | 0-2 |
| Oct 05 | FC Vaduz vs Rapperswil | 3-2 |
| Sep 27 | FC Vaduz vs Stade Lau… | 1-1 |
| Sep 13 | FC Vaduz vs FC Aarau | 1-0 |
| Aug 31 | FC Vaduz vs FC WIL 19… | 2-1 |
| Aug 25 | FC Vaduz vs Neuchâtel… | 1-1 |
| Aug 22 | FC Vaduz vs Bellinzona | 6-0 |
| Aug 14 | FC Vaduz vs AZ Alkmaar | 0-1 |
| Aug 10 | FC Vaduz vs Stade Nyo… | 3-0 |
| Aug 07 | FC Vaduz vs AZ Alkmaar | 3-0 |
Étoile Carouge Form 10.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 17 | Étoile Ca… vs Neuchâtel… | 0-2 |
| Oct 04 | Étoile Ca… vs Bellinzona | 0-3 |
| Sep 26 | Étoile Ca… vs FC Aarau | 1-3 |
| Sep 19 | Étoile Ca… vs FC Basel … | 2-2 |
| Sep 12 | Étoile Ca… vs Yverdon S… | 2-1 |
| Aug 30 | Étoile Ca… vs Stade Lau… | 2-0 |
| Aug 26 | Étoile Ca… vs Stade Nyo… | 1-1 |
| Aug 22 | Étoile Ca… vs Neuchâtel… | 2-1 |
| Aug 08 | Étoile Ca… vs FC WIL 19… | 1-0 |
| Aug 03 | Étoile Ca… vs FC Vaduz | 1-1 |
Key Analysis Factors
- FC Vaduz in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 03, 2025 | Étoile Carouge | 1 - 1 | FC Vaduz | Challenge Leag… |
| Apr 27, 2025 | FC Vaduz | 1 - 0 | Étoile Carouge | Challenge Leag… |
| Mar 02, 2025 | Étoile Carouge | 3 - 2 | FC Vaduz | Challenge Leag… |
| Dec 14, 2024 | FC Vaduz | 3 - 2 | Étoile Carouge | Challenge Leag… |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Étoile Carouge | 1 - 0 | FC Vaduz | Challenge Leag… |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: FC Vaduz to win (63% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0
63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%)
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
FC Vaduz Power
0
Étoile Carouge Power
0
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
1
FC Vaduz Position+8
Position Gap9
Étoile Carouge Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 10%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.