AI Match Insights

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Challenge League Aug 03, 2025

Étoile Carouge

Home
VS
14:30

FC Vaduz

Away
AI Predictions 39.6% Confidence
Étoile Carouge Win
33.0%
Draw
27.4%
FC Vaduz Win
39.6%
Away Win (40% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 34%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 26%
xG: 3.24 - 1.13
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.2 vs 1.1
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Étoile Carouge Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
13%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
18%
FC Vaduz Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
32%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (8%) 2-1 (8%) 3-0 (7%) 2-0 (7%) 1-1 (5%) 3-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Under 2.5 Goals 30%
Étoile Carouge Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Jul 25 Étoile Ca… vs Rapperswil 1-0
May 23 Étoile Ca… vs FC Thun 1-0
May 16 Étoile Ca… vs FC Aarau 1-3
May 09 Étoile Ca… vs Neuchâtel… 1-2
May 02 Étoile Ca… vs Stade Lau… 1-2
Apr 27 Étoile Ca… vs FC Vaduz 1-0
Apr 18 Étoile Ca… vs FC Schaff… 0-2
Apr 13 Étoile Ca… vs FC WIL 19… 2-2
Apr 05 Étoile Ca… vs Bellinzona 7-0
Mar 31 Étoile Ca… vs Stade Nyo… 2-1
FC Vaduz Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Jul 31 FC Vaduz vs Dungannon… 0-3
Jul 27 FC Vaduz vs Yverdon S… 2-1
Jul 24 FC Vaduz vs Dungannon… 0-1
May 23 FC Vaduz vs Stade Lau… 2-0
May 16 FC Vaduz vs FC Schaff… 1-0
May 11 FC Vaduz vs FC Thun 3-3
May 02 FC Vaduz vs Stade Nyo… 1-0
Apr 27 FC Vaduz vs Étoile Ca… 1-0
Apr 18 FC Vaduz vs FC Aarau 2-2
Apr 12 FC Vaduz vs Bellinzona 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • FC Vaduz in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
  • Étoile Carouge struggling (4L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 27, 2025 FC Vaduz 1 - 0 Étoile Carouge Challenge Leag…
Mar 02, 2025 Étoile Carouge 3 - 2 FC Vaduz Challenge Leag…
Dec 14, 2024 FC Vaduz 3 - 2 Étoile Carouge Challenge Leag…
Sep 24, 2024 Étoile Carouge 1 - 0 FC Vaduz Challenge Leag…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Étoile Carouge Power 0
FC Vaduz Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Étoile Carouge Position

-8

Position Gap

1

FC Vaduz Position
Home Win Rate: 30%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.