AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League One Aug 09, 2025

Montrose

Home
VS
14:00

Kelty Hearts

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Montrose Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Kelty Hearts Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-2
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 68%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 2.66 - 2.06
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.7 vs 2.1 Position gap: 5 places
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Montrose Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
7%
1 goals:
19%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
15%
Kelty Hearts Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
13%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-2 (7%) 2-1 (6%) 3-2 (6%) 3-1 (6%) 1-2 (5%) 1-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 81%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Under 2.5 Goals 22%
Montrose Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 02 Montrose vs Hamilton … 2-0
Jul 26 Montrose vs Dundee Utd 5-0
Jul 23 Montrose vs Airdrieon… 1-2
Jul 19 Montrose vs Bonnyrigg… 4-1
Jul 15 Montrose vs Alloa Ath… 2-1
May 03 Montrose vs Inverness… 0-2
Apr 26 Montrose vs Alloa Ath… 2-1
Apr 19 Montrose vs Dumbarton 2-2
Apr 12 Montrose vs Queen of … 2-1
Apr 05 Montrose vs Arbroath 0-1
Kelty Hearts Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 02 Kelty Hea… vs Inverness… 0-3
Jul 26 Kelty Hea… vs Livingston 6-0
Jul 22 Kelty Hea… vs Kilmarnock 0-0
Jul 19 Kelty Hea… vs East Fife 0-1
Jul 15 Kelty Hea… vs Rangers FC 0-4
May 03 Kelty Hea… vs Alloa Ath… 2-1
Apr 26 Kelty Hea… vs Rangers FC 2-2
Apr 19 Kelty Hea… vs Queen of … 1-3
Apr 12 Kelty Hea… vs Inverness… 0-2
Apr 05 Kelty Hea… vs Dumbarton 0-6
Key Analysis Factors
  • Montrose struggling (4L in last 5) Home
  • Kelty Hearts struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 9 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 08, 2025 Kelty Hearts 0 - 0 Montrose League One
Jan 04, 2025 Montrose 0 - 0 Kelty Hearts League One
Oct 19, 2024 Kelty Hearts 0 - 2 Montrose League One
Aug 03, 2024 Montrose 1 - 1 Kelty Hearts League One
Apr 27, 2024 Kelty Hearts 0 - 2 Montrose League One
Feb 17, 2024 Montrose 4 - 2 Kelty Hearts League One
Dec 16, 2023 Kelty Hearts 0 - 1 Montrose League One
Aug 05, 2023 Montrose 0 - 2 Kelty Hearts League One
Mar 18, 2023 Kelty Hearts 1 - 2 Montrose League One
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Montrose to win (43% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 43% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Montrose Power 0
Kelty Hearts Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Montrose Position

+5

Position Gap

10

Kelty Hearts Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 27%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.