AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
1st Division Nov 03, 2025

Pogradeci

Home
VS
13:00

Apolonia Fier

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
Pogradeci Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Apolonia Fier Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 70%
Standings 72%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 47%
xG: 1.27 - 0.56
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.3 vs 0.6 Position gap: 6 places
High draw risk (47%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Pogradeci Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
28%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
10%
4 goals:
3%
Apolonia Fier Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
57%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (20%) 0-0 (16%) 2-0 (13%) 1-1 (11%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 31%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Under 2.5 Goals 72%
Pogradeci Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 29 Pogradeci vs Korabi Pe… 1-2
Oct 25 Pogradeci vs Kastrioti… 4-0
Oct 19 Pogradeci vs Besa Kava… 1-1
Oct 03 Pogradeci vs Luftëtari 2-3
Sep 27 Pogradeci vs FK Kukesi 1-3
Sep 19 Pogradeci vs Skenderbe… 0-1
Sep 13 Pogradeci vs Laci 1-0
Aug 30 Pogradeci vs Iliria Fu… 0-0
Aug 24 Pogradeci vs Lushnja 0-0
Apr 28 Pogradeci vs Besa Kava… 0-1
Apolonia Fier Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 28 Apolonia … vs Iliria Fu… 0-0
Oct 24 Apolonia … vs Lushnja 0-1
Oct 19 Apolonia … vs Burreli 1-2
Oct 03 Apolonia … vs Laci 1-1
Sep 27 Apolonia … vs Korabi Pe… 0-0
Sep 20 Apolonia … vs Kastrioti… 2-0
Sep 13 Apolonia … vs Besa Kava… 1-2
Aug 30 Apolonia … vs Luftëtari 1-1
Aug 23 Apolonia … vs FK Kukesi 2-1
Apr 24 Apolonia … vs Besa Kava… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Pogradeci in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 17, 2025 Pogradeci 1 - 1 Apolonia Fier 1st Division
Feb 08, 2025 Apolonia Fier 0 - 0 Pogradeci 1st Division
Nov 03, 2024 Pogradeci 1 - 0 Apolonia Fier 1st Division
Apr 09, 2022 Apolonia Fier 2 - 0 Pogradeci 1st Division
Nov 28, 2021 Pogradeci 2 - 1 Apolonia Fier 1st Division
Jul 11, 2020 Apolonia Fier 2 - 2 Pogradeci 1st Division
Jun 20, 2020 Pogradeci 0 - 1 Apolonia Fier 1st Division
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Pogradeci to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Pogradeci Power 0
Apolonia Fier Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Pogradeci Position

+6

Position Gap

9

Apolonia Fier Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.