AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
1st Division Feb 17, 2025

Pogradeci

Home
VS
12:30

Apolonia Fier

Away
AI Predictions 38.0% Confidence
Pogradeci Win
35.0%
Draw
27.0%
Apolonia Fier Win
38.0%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 72%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.08 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.1 vs 0.2 Position gap: 6 places
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Pogradeci Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
34%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Apolonia Fier Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (30%) 0-0 (28%) 2-0 (16%) 1-1 (6%) 3-0 (6%) 0-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 12%
Over 2.5 Goals 14%
Under 2.5 Goals 86%
Pogradeci Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 08 Pogradeci vs Apolonia … 0-0
Feb 01 Pogradeci vs Korabi Pe… 1-0
Jan 10 Pogradeci vs FK Kukesi 3-1
Dec 02 Pogradeci vs Besa Kava… 0-0
Nov 20 Pogradeci vs FK Kukesi 2-1
Nov 09 Pogradeci vs Kastrioti… 2-0
Nov 03 Pogradeci vs Apolonia … 1-0
Oct 30 Pogradeci vs Korabi Pe… 3-1
Oct 16 Pogradeci vs Luftëtari 2-0
Oct 05 Pogradeci vs FK Kukesi 2-0
Apolonia Fier Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 08 Apolonia … vs Pogradeci 0-0
Jan 25 Apolonia … vs Korabi Pe… 4-2
Jan 19 Apolonia … vs Burreli 0-1
Dec 22 Apolonia … vs Besa Kava… 0-2
Dec 07 Apolonia … vs Lushnja 2-1
Nov 24 Apolonia … vs Kastrioti… 1-0
Nov 20 Apolonia … vs Burreli 3-1
Nov 03 Apolonia … vs Pogradeci 1-0
Oct 26 Apolonia … vs Korabi Pe… 0-3
Oct 21 Apolonia … vs Burreli 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Apolonia Fier in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 08, 2025 Apolonia Fier 0 - 0 Pogradeci 1st Division
Nov 03, 2024 Pogradeci 1 - 0 Apolonia Fier 1st Division
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Pogradeci to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Pogradeci Power 0
Apolonia Fier Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Pogradeci Position

+6

Position Gap

9

Apolonia Fier Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.