AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
1st Division Nov 03, 2024

Pogradeci

Home
VS
13:00

Apolonia Fier

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
Pogradeci Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Apolonia Fier Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 80%
Standings 72%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 42%
xG: 1.95 - 0.93
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 0.9 Position gap: 6 places
High draw risk (42%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Pogradeci Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
14%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Apolonia Fier Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
40%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (11%) 2-0 (11%) 1-1 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 3-0 (7%) 3-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 52%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Under 2.5 Goals 47%
Pogradeci Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 30 Pogradeci vs Korabi Pe… 3-1
Oct 16 Pogradeci vs Luftëtari 2-0
Oct 05 Pogradeci vs FK Kukesi 2-0
Sep 11 Pogradeci vs Besa Kava… 0-2
Aug 24 Pogradeci vs Kastrioti… 3-1
Apr 09 Pogradeci vs Apolonia … 2-0
Mar 07 Pogradeci vs Korabi Pe… 1-0
Jan 29 Pogradeci vs Besa Kava… 0-3
Nov 28 Pogradeci vs Apolonia … 2-1
Nov 17 Pogradeci vs Vllaznia … 6-1
Apolonia Fier Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 26 Apolonia … vs Korabi Pe… 0-3
Oct 21 Apolonia … vs Burreli 1-1
Sep 28 Apolonia … vs Besa Kava… 1-2
Sep 15 Apolonia … vs Lushnja 0-1
Aug 31 Apolonia … vs Kastrioti… 2-2
May 08 Apolonia … vs Burreli 2-1
May 04 Apolonia … vs Besa Kava… 0-1
Mar 17 Apolonia … vs Korabi Pe… 1-1
Mar 09 Apolonia … vs Lushnja 1-1
Mar 03 Apolonia … vs Kastrioti… 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Pogradeci in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 09, 2022 Apolonia Fier 2 - 0 Pogradeci 1st Division
Nov 28, 2021 Pogradeci 2 - 1 Apolonia Fier 1st Division
Jul 11, 2020 Apolonia Fier 2 - 2 Pogradeci 1st Division
Jun 20, 2020 Pogradeci 0 - 1 Apolonia Fier 1st Division
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Pogradeci to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Pogradeci Power 0
Apolonia Fier Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Pogradeci Position

+6

Position Gap

9

Apolonia Fier Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.