AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Cearense - 1 Mar 15, 2025

Fortaleza

Home
VS
19:30

Ceará

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Fortaleza Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Ceará Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 69%
Standings 35%
Market 50%
Combined: 42% Draw Risk: 53%
xG: 1.25 - 0.59
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.2 vs 0.6
High draw risk (53%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Fortaleza Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
29%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Ceará Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
55%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (20%) 0-0 (16%) 2-0 (12%) 1-1 (12%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 32%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Under 2.5 Goals 72%
Fortaleza Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 08 Fortaleza vs Ferroviár… 1-0
Mar 05 Fortaleza vs Ferroviár… 4-0
Mar 01 Fortaleza vs Ferroviár… 0-0
Feb 08 Fortaleza vs Ceará 1-2
Feb 01 Fortaleza vs Floresta 0-1
Jan 30 Fortaleza vs Maracanaú… 1-0
Jan 25 Fortaleza vs Horizonte 1-3
Dec 08 Fortaleza vs Internaci… 3-0
Dec 05 Fortaleza vs Athletico… 3-1
Dec 01 Fortaleza vs Vitoria 2-0
Ceará Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 13 Ceará vs Confiança 2-2
Feb 19 Ceará vs Sergipe 0-2
Feb 08 Ceará vs Fortaleza 1-2
Jan 29 Ceará vs Iguatu 1-0
Jan 26 Ceará vs Ferroviár… 1-2
Jan 18 Ceará vs Pague Men… 2-1
Nov 24 Ceará vs Guaraní C… 0-0
Nov 19 Ceará vs América M… 1-0
Nov 13 Ceará vs Botafogo 1-4
Nov 03 Ceará vs Avaí 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Fortaleza in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Ceará in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 08, 2025 Fortaleza 1 - 2 Ceará Cearense - 1
Apr 06, 2024 Ceará 1 - 1 Fortaleza Cearense - 1
Mar 30, 2024 Fortaleza 0 - 0 Ceará Cearense - 1
Mar 21, 2024 Fortaleza 0 - 1 Ceará Copa do Nordes…
Feb 17, 2024 Fortaleza 3 - 3 Ceará Cearense - 1
Apr 08, 2023 Ceará 2 - 2 Fortaleza Cearense - 1
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Fortaleza to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Fortaleza Power 0
Ceará Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Fortaleza Position

0

Position Gap

1

Ceará Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 100%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.