AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Cearense - 1 Feb 08, 2025

Fortaleza

Home
VS
19:30

Ceará

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Fortaleza Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Ceará Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 81%
Standings 35%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 38%
xG: 1.36 - 0.28
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.3
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Fortaleza Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
26%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Ceará Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
76%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
3%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (26%) 0-0 (19%) 2-0 (18%) 3-0 (8%) 1-1 (7%) 0-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 18%
Over 2.5 Goals 22%
Under 2.5 Goals 78%
Fortaleza Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Fortaleza vs Floresta 0-1
Jan 30 Fortaleza vs Maracanaú… 1-0
Jan 25 Fortaleza vs Horizonte 1-3
Dec 08 Fortaleza vs Internaci… 3-0
Dec 05 Fortaleza vs Athletico… 3-1
Dec 01 Fortaleza vs Vitoria 2-0
Nov 26 Fortaleza vs Flamengo 0-0
Nov 24 Fortaleza vs Ceará II 3-1
Nov 23 Fortaleza vs Fluminense 2-2
Nov 14 Fortaleza vs Caucaia 1-0
Ceará Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 29 Ceará vs Iguatu 1-0
Jan 26 Ceará vs Ferroviár… 1-2
Jan 18 Ceará vs Pague Men… 2-1
Nov 24 Ceará vs Guaraní C… 0-0
Nov 19 Ceará vs América M… 1-0
Nov 13 Ceará vs Botafogo 1-4
Nov 03 Ceará vs Avaí 2-0
Oct 26 Ceará vs Paysandu … 2-1
May 24 Ceará vs CRB 0-1
May 02 Ceará vs CRB 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Fortaleza in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Ceará in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 06, 2024 Ceará 1 - 1 Fortaleza Cearense - 1
Mar 30, 2024 Fortaleza 0 - 0 Ceará Cearense - 1
Mar 21, 2024 Fortaleza 0 - 1 Ceará Copa do Nordes…
Feb 17, 2024 Fortaleza 3 - 3 Ceará Cearense - 1
Apr 08, 2023 Ceará 2 - 2 Fortaleza Cearense - 1
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Fortaleza to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Fortaleza Power 0
Ceará Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Fortaleza Position

0

Position Gap

1

Ceará Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 100%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.