AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
National Soccer League May 22, 2025

Police

Home
VS
13:00

AS Kigali

Away
AI Predictions 61.0% Confidence
Police Win
61.0%
Draw
21.8%
AS Kigali Win
17.2%
Home Win (61% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 41%
xG: 2.00 - 1.16
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.0 vs 1.2 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Police Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
14%
1 goals:
27%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
AS Kigali Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
31%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 1-0 (8%) 2-0 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 1-2 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
Police Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 27 Police vs Gorilla 0-0
Apr 18 Police vs Gasogi Un… 0-2
Mar 15 Police vs Bugesera 0-1
Mar 02 Police vs APR 1-3
Dec 27 Police vs Gasogi Un… 2-0
Dec 13 Police vs Bugesera 2-2
Dec 04 Police vs APR 1-1
Nov 10 Police vs AS Kigali 1-0
Oct 20 Police vs Gorilla 0-0
Sep 18 Police vs Etincelles 0-0
AS Kigali Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
May 19 AS Kigali vs Etincelles 2-2
Mar 28 AS Kigali vs Gasogi Un… 0-0
Mar 15 AS Kigali vs Kiyovu Sp… 2-1
Mar 09 AS Kigali vs Rutsiro 2-1
Feb 16 AS Kigali vs APR 2-1
Feb 08 AS Kigali vs Bugesera 1-0
Jan 07 AS Kigali vs Etincelles 1-0
Jan 04 AS Kigali vs Gasogi Un… 1-2
Dec 14 AS Kigali vs Kiyovu Sp… 1-3
Dec 07 AS Kigali vs Bugesera 1-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Police in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • AS Kigali struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 10, 2024 AS Kigali 1 - 0 Police National Socce…
Feb 24, 2024 Police 0 - 1 AS Kigali National Socce…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Police to win (64% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 64% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Police Power 0
AS Kigali Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Police Position

+11

Position Gap

14

AS Kigali Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 22%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.