AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
National Soccer League Feb 24, 2024

Police

Home
VS
13:00

AS Kigali

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Police Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
AS Kigali Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.49 - 0.60
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.5 vs 0.6 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Police Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
23%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
12%
4 goals:
5%
AS Kigali Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
55%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (18%) 2-0 (14%) 0-0 (12%) 1-1 (11%) 2-1 (8%) 0-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 35%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Under 2.5 Goals 66%
Police Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 Police vs Etincelles 1-1
Jan 21 Police vs APR 0-1
Dec 05 Police vs Bugesera 4-2
Nov 03 Police vs Gorilla 1-0
Oct 28 Police vs Gasogi Un… 0-1
Sep 17 Police vs Etincelles 1-0
Aug 28 Police vs APR 1-0
May 20 Police vs Gasogi Un… 2-2
Apr 29 Police vs Etincelles 1-0
Apr 22 Police vs APR 2-1
AS Kigali Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 27 AS Kigali vs Gasogi Un… 0-1
Jan 13 AS Kigali vs Bugesera 0-0
Dec 09 AS Kigali vs Kiyovu Sp… 2-1
Dec 06 AS Kigali vs Etincelles 4-2
Nov 25 AS Kigali vs APR 1-1
Sep 02 AS Kigali vs Gasogi Un… 1-2
Aug 21 AS Kigali vs Bugesera 1-0
May 28 AS Kigali vs Bugesera 2-1
May 21 AS Kigali vs Rutsiro 0-2
May 06 AS Kigali vs Gasogi Un… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Final Verdict

STANDARD: Police to win (64% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 64% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Police Power 0
AS Kigali Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Police Position

+11

Position Gap

14

AS Kigali Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 22%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.