AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga 3 Apr 06, 2025

Amarante

Home
VS
14:00

Varzim

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Amarante Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Varzim Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 53%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 53%
xG: 1.43 - 0.56
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.6
High draw risk (53%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Amarante Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
24%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
12%
4 goals:
4%
Varzim Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
57%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (20%) 2-0 (14%) 0-0 (14%) 1-1 (11%) 2-1 (8%) 0-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 33%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Under 2.5 Goals 68%
Amarante Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 16 Amarante vs Fafe 1-3
Feb 08 Amarante vs Varzim 1-2
Jan 18 Amarante vs Fafe 0-0
Jan 12 Amarante vs SC Braga 1-1
Dec 15 Amarante vs Varzim 0-1
Dec 01 Amarante vs São João … 2-0
Nov 22 Amarante vs Sporting … 6-0
Nov 10 Amarante vs Trofense 1-0
Nov 02 Amarante vs Sanjoanen… 1-0
Oct 06 Amarante vs Fafe 4-1
Varzim Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 29 Varzim vs Fafe 1-0
Feb 08 Varzim vs Amarante 1-2
Jan 26 Varzim vs São João … 4-1
Jan 18 Varzim vs Trofense 2-1
Jan 12 Varzim vs Sanjoanen… 1-2
Dec 15 Varzim vs Amarante 0-1
Dec 07 Varzim vs SC Braga 1-0
Nov 24 Varzim vs O Elvas 1-2
Nov 09 Varzim vs Fafe 2-0
Oct 26 Varzim vs São João … 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Varzim struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 08, 2025 Varzim 1 - 2 Amarante Liga 3
Dec 15, 2024 Amarante 0 - 1 Varzim Liga 3
Aug 31, 2024 Varzim 1 - 3 Amarante Liga 3
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Amarante to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Amarante Power 0
Varzim Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Amarante Position

+1

Position Gap

3

Varzim Position
Home Win Rate: 44%
Away Win Rate: 39%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.