AI Match Insights

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League Two Aug 16, 2025

Chesterfield

Home
VS
11:30

Bristol Rovers

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Chesterfield Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Bristol Rovers Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 88%
Standings 73%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 30%
xG: 2.46 - 0.89
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.5 vs 0.9 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Chesterfield Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
9%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
13%
Bristol Rovers Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
41%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (11%) 2-1 (9%) 3-0 (9%) 1-0 (9%) 3-1 (8%) 1-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 54%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Under 2.5 Goals 39%
Chesterfield Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 12 Chesterfi… vs Mansfield… 0-2
Aug 09 Chesterfi… vs Chelsea 0-2
Aug 02 Chesterfi… vs Barrow 1-0
May 16 Chesterfi… vs Walsall 2-1
May 11 Chesterfi… vs Walsall 0-2
May 03 Chesterfi… vs Accringto… 0-1
May 03 Chesterfi… vs Accringto… 0-1
Apr 26 Chesterfi… vs Morecambe 4-1
Apr 26 Chesterfi… vs Morecambe 4-1
Apr 21 Chesterfi… vs Brentford 3-3
Bristol Rovers Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 12 Bristol R… vs Cambridge… 0-2
Aug 09 Bristol R… vs Fleetwood… 2-1
Aug 02 Bristol R… vs Harrogate 0-1
Jul 16 Bristol R… vs Bath City 0-1
May 03 Bristol R… vs Blackpool 4-1
Apr 26 Bristol R… vs Reading FC 0-2
Apr 21 Bristol R… vs Stevenage 0-1
Mar 04 Bristol R… vs Shrewsbury 0-0
Jan 04 Bristol R… vs Cambridge… 0-1
Oct 22 Bristol R… vs Shrewsbury 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Chesterfield struggling (3L in last 5) Home
  • Bristol Rovers struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jul 29, 2023 Bristol Rovers 2 - 0 Chesterfield Friendlies Clu…
Final Verdict

PRO: Chesterfield to win (73% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 73% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Chesterfield Power 38
Bristol Rovers Power 27
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Chesterfield Position

+11

Position Gap

19

Bristol Rovers Position
Home Win Rate: 43%
Away Win Rate: 21%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.