AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
FAW Championship Mar 01, 2025

Caersws

Home
VS
14:00

Penrhyncoch

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Caersws Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Penrhyncoch Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 91%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 54% Draw Risk: 39%
xG: 2.99 - 1.15
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.0 vs 1.1 Position gap: 6 places
High draw risk (39%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Caersws Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
5%
1 goals:
15%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
17%
Penrhyncoch Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
32%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (8%) 3-1 (8%) 2-0 (7%) 3-0 (7%) 1-1 (5%) 1-0 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Under 2.5 Goals 30%
Caersws Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 18 Caersws vs Penrhynco… 4-1
Feb 08 Caersws vs Mold Alex… 2-2
Dec 14 Caersws vs Airbus UK 2-0
Nov 16 Caersws vs Bangor 18… 2-1
Nov 09 Caersws vs Flint Mou… 0-1
Oct 05 Caersws vs Guilsfield 5-3
Sep 28 Caersws vs Ruthin To… 1-1
Sep 07 Caersws vs Mold Alex… 0-1
Aug 10 Caersws vs Ruthin To… 2-1
Aug 03 Caersws vs Flint Mou… 2-3
Penrhyncoch Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 18 Penrhynco… vs Caersws 4-1
Feb 15 Penrhynco… vs Buckley T… 0-0
Dec 28 Penrhynco… vs Guilsfield 4-2
Dec 14 Penrhynco… vs Guilsfield 1-1
Oct 26 Penrhynco… vs Gresford … 1-1
Oct 19 Penrhynco… vs Mold Alex… 1-3
Oct 12 Penrhynco… vs Ruthin To… 1-3
Aug 23 Penrhynco… vs Ruthin To… 2-3
Aug 17 Penrhynco… vs Gresford … 2-4
Jul 26 Penrhynco… vs Buckley T… 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Caersws struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 18, 2025 Penrhyncoch 4 - 1 Caersws FAW Championsh…
Sep 17, 2022 Penrhyncoch 1 - 1 Caersws Welsh Cup
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Caersws to win (43% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 43% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Caersws Power 0
Penrhyncoch Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Caersws Position

+6

Position Gap

15

Penrhyncoch Position
Home Win Rate: 44%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.