AI Match Insights

FA Cup Mar 16, 2024

Manchester City

Home
VS
17:30

Newcastle United

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Manchester City Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Newcastle United Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 60% Draw Risk: 14%
xG: 4.50 - 1.04
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 1.0
Score Prediction Analysis
Manchester City Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Newcastle United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
35%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (6%) 3-0 (6%) 2-1 (4%) 2-0 (4%) 3-2 (3%) 2-2 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
Manchester City Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 10 Mancheste… vs Liverpool 1-1
Mar 10 Mancheste… vs Liverpool 1-1
Mar 09 Mancheste… vs Barrow 2-0
Mar 06 Mancheste… vs FC Copenh… 3-1
Mar 03 Mancheste… vs Mancheste… 3-1
Mar 03 Mancheste… vs Mancheste… 3-1
Feb 27 Mancheste… vs Watford 1-1
Feb 27 Mancheste… vs Watford 1-1
Feb 24 Mancheste… vs Bournemou… 0-1
Feb 24 Mancheste… vs Southampt… 1-1
Newcastle United Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 11 Newcastle… vs Chelsea 3-2
Mar 11 Newcastle… vs Chelsea 3-2
Mar 02 Newcastle… vs Wolves 3-0
Mar 02 Newcastle… vs Wolves 3-0
Feb 24 Newcastle… vs Arsenal 4-1
Feb 17 Newcastle… vs Bournemou… 2-2
Feb 17 Newcastle… vs Bournemou… 2-2
Feb 10 Newcastle… vs Nottingha… 2-3
Feb 03 Newcastle… vs Bolton 4-4
Jan 30 Newcastle… vs Aston Vil… 1-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Newcastle United struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 13, 2024 Newcastle United 2 - 3 Manchester City Pro League
Jan 13, 2024 Newcastle United 2 - 3 Manchester City Premier League
Sep 27, 2023 Newcastle United 1 - 0 Manchester City League Cup
Aug 19, 2023 Manchester City 1 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Mar 04, 2023 Manchester City 2 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Aug 21, 2022 Newcastle United 3 - 3 Manchester City Premier League
May 08, 2022 Manchester City 5 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Dec 19, 2021 Newcastle United 0 - 4 Manchester City Premier League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Manchester City to win (40% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 40% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Manchester City Power 46
Newcastle United Power 35
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.