AI Match Insights
FA Cup Mar 16, 2024
Manchester City
HomeVS
17:30
Newcastle United
AwayAI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Manchester City Win
Draw
Newcastle United Win
Home Win
(49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
Combined: 60%
Draw Risk: 14%
xG: 4.50 - 1.04
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 1.0
Score Prediction Analysis
Manchester City Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Newcastle United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (6%)
3-0 (6%)
2-1 (4%)
2-0 (4%)
3-2 (3%)
2-2 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
64%
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
Under 2.5 Goals
38%
Manchester City Form 12.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10 | Mancheste… vs Liverpool | 1-1 |
| Mar 10 | Mancheste… vs Liverpool | 1-1 |
| Mar 09 | Mancheste… vs Barrow | 2-0 |
| Mar 06 | Mancheste… vs FC Copenh… | 3-1 |
| Mar 03 | Mancheste… vs Mancheste… | 3-1 |
| Mar 03 | Mancheste… vs Mancheste… | 3-1 |
| Feb 27 | Mancheste… vs Watford | 1-1 |
| Feb 27 | Mancheste… vs Watford | 1-1 |
| Feb 24 | Mancheste… vs Bournemou… | 0-1 |
| Feb 24 | Mancheste… vs Southampt… | 1-1 |
Newcastle United Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 | Newcastle… vs Chelsea | 3-2 |
| Mar 11 | Newcastle… vs Chelsea | 3-2 |
| Mar 02 | Newcastle… vs Wolves | 3-0 |
| Mar 02 | Newcastle… vs Wolves | 3-0 |
| Feb 24 | Newcastle… vs Arsenal | 4-1 |
| Feb 17 | Newcastle… vs Bournemou… | 2-2 |
| Feb 17 | Newcastle… vs Bournemou… | 2-2 |
| Feb 10 | Newcastle… vs Nottingha… | 2-3 |
| Feb 03 | Newcastle… vs Bolton | 4-4 |
| Jan 30 | Newcastle… vs Aston Vil… | 1-3 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Newcastle United struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2024 | Newcastle United | 2 - 3 | Manchester City | Pro League |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Newcastle United | 2 - 3 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2023 | Newcastle United | 1 - 0 | Manchester City | League Cup |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Manchester City | 1 - 0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| Mar 04, 2023 | Manchester City | 2 - 0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| Aug 21, 2022 | Newcastle United | 3 - 3 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| May 08, 2022 | Manchester City | 5 - 0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| Dec 19, 2021 | Newcastle United | 0 - 4 | Manchester City | Premier League |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: Manchester City to win (40% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0
40% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
Manchester City Power
46
Newcastle United Power
35
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.