AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League Cup Sep 27, 2023

Newcastle United

Home
VS
19:00

Manchester City

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Newcastle United Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Manchester City Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 71%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 33%
xG: 2.25 - 1.51
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.2 vs 1.5
High draw risk (33%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Newcastle United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
11%
1 goals:
24%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
11%
Manchester City Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
22%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
13%
4 goals:
5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 1-1 (8%) 2-2 (7%) 3-1 (7%) 1-2 (6%) 2-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Under 2.5 Goals 31%
Newcastle United Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 16 Newcastle… vs Brentford 1-0
Aug 27 Newcastle… vs Liverpool 1-2
Aug 19 Newcastle… vs Mancheste… 1-0
Aug 12 Newcastle… vs Aston Vil… 5-1
Jul 27 Newcastle… vs Chelsea 1-1
Jul 23 Newcastle… vs Aston Vil… 3-3
May 28 Newcastle… vs Chelsea 1-1
May 13 Newcastle… vs Leeds 2-2
Apr 27 Newcastle… vs Everton 1-4
Apr 23 Newcastle… vs Tottenham 6-1
Manchester City Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 23 Mancheste… vs Nottingha… 2-0
Sep 23 Mancheste… vs Crewe 2-1
Sep 16 Mancheste… vs West Brom 1-3
Sep 02 Mancheste… vs Walsall 1-0
Sep 02 Mancheste… vs Fulham 5-1
Aug 26 Mancheste… vs Birmingham 0-3
Aug 19 Mancheste… vs Newcastle… 1-0
Aug 19 Mancheste… vs Milton Ke… 2-3
Jul 28 Mancheste… vs West Ham … 0-1
Jun 03 Mancheste… vs Mancheste… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Manchester City in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 19, 2023 Manchester City 1 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Mar 04, 2023 Manchester City 2 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Aug 21, 2022 Newcastle United 3 - 3 Manchester City Premier League
May 08, 2022 Manchester City 5 - 0 Newcastle United Premier League
Dec 19, 2021 Newcastle United 0 - 4 Manchester City Premier League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Newcastle United to win (40% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 2-1 40% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Newcastle United Power 35
Manchester City Power 46
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.